Epstein Secrets

ives were hitting record over bought signals with Financials and Cyclicals seeing the opposite. Against the ba

r Cross Asset year ahead you needed not so much a crystal ball as a time machine to have got things completely right this year. Aside from Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US election it is easy to forget that in February we were worrying about a US recession and deflation. US 5Y5Y forward breakeven inflatio

ed at 1.8% at that point. Four months later we were worrying about the deflationary impact of Brexit. Now we are thinking about the reflation under a Trump Presidency. Chart 9: US 5Y5Y forward inflation troughed in February Chart 10: At the same time as Basic Resources 3.3 17 34 45 —— Stoxx Basic Resour

ritten that US corporates in aggregate (including Financials) hold ~$2tn in cash overseas, and their work sugg

reform OK, maybe it’s not as inevitable as death and taxes, but some form of corporate tax reform seems likely. It is a stated priority of President Trump and has widespread Congressional support. We here focus on four components that could have big equity implications. We assess the impacts at a market

x reform seems likely. It is a stated priority of President Trump and has widespread Congressional support. We here

N s+ ico} [o>} Lop} 12>} Lo>} Lop} Q Q Q OQ OQ = =— mm = Oo Oo oO Oo Oo Qo Qo Q QoQ Q Q Q Q ~~ — ~~ _ = —N N N N N N N N N 0 85 25885852825 mum Tech (MO Financials oo nk? i > > > 2 > = ~~ ) Discretionary (QW Industrials TONNE NNN NN NN i Staples GE Energy ems |_argest sector weight in the S&P500 = === Current =

r- end target of 2.85% for the 10y rate (just above the median forecast). Long-term rates have remained low due to uncertainty around Fiscal policy (Trump’s plans on infrastructure spending), subdued inflation expectations and a slower than expected Fed hiking cycle. On the other hand, a near full-emplo