Epstein Secrets

EC supply), there is clearly a robust slate of projects on the horizon. Figure 1: Since 2004, higher contributions from major projects have driven Non-OPEC Supply growth 2000 1500 1000 500 0 ---- 000 1528 1134 TIP L Is 400 400100014M IMO - 1203 WO a12001441 sms Grow, Bet CaltrtOlon .vallorOPEC 4

017, we estimate annual, major project-driven growth barrels of 1380 Mb/d, vs. the historical rate of 970 Mb/d between 2004- 2013, supporting annual Non-OPEC supply growth of 500 Mb/d through 2017. Leading drivers: US GoM, Brazil, Canada, and slower declines on recent redevelopment projects in the North

ining at an elevated 1275 Mb/d per year through the rest of the decade. Figure 9: Since 2004, higher contributions from major projects have driven Non-OPEC Supply growth 2000 1500 1030 0 -500 TIP 1100-10:0 1.0t1 1000 • 1200 MM 1525 >1X0 MM1 •My Poe. Obi Ccneltution .0/0 000PEC 500 0000 (1010 Sant D

risk to the current supply outlook and decline rates may eventually tick higher, the reality is that those looking for a rapid negative response in Non-OPEC production are likely to be disappointed. The reason? 1) Despite frequent jokes to the contrary, 4+ years of -$100/bbl crude generated significant

pointed (see figure below), but there is no avoiding the fact that the outlook for Non-OPEC supply is more robust than usual. I Figure 12: However, Non-OPEC Supply has often disappointed (lEA Non- OPEC supply projection revisions) rn 1.0 0.8 a 0.6 (1, ^ 0 o OA t 0.2 1.2 E 0.0 c • (0.2) (0.4) 8. •

fe (ex US. Canada) Sane Detach* M. Vitat Irnoine •Shallow •OW IlUDW •Canada Offshore. Oil Sands s LNG There are clearly risks to this outlook, as Non-OPEC supply has historically disappointed (see figure below), but there is no avoiding the fact that the outlook for Non-OPEC supply is more robust than