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cape the army's siege, the situation in Syria is undoubtedly growing desperate. However, we have not yet seen the red flags that would indicate the al Assad regime is in imminent danger of collapse. The reasons are fairly straightforward. The al Assad clan belongs to Syria's Alawite minority, who only 4
hereas most Islamist exiles were confined to places like Iran and Syria), seemed not to understand how democracy works: people like Iyad Allawi and Ahmed Chalabi had an air of entitlement, assuming that people would vote for them merely because they were modern, progressive and famous. They didn't bother to
escape the army's siege, the situation in Syria is undoubtedly growing desperate. However, we have not yet seen the red flags that would indicate the al Assad regime is in imminent danger of collapse. The reasons are fairly straightforward. The al Assad clan belongs to Syria's Alawite minority, who only 40
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030163 →(whereas most Islamist exiles were confined to places like Iran and Syria), seemed not to understand how democracy works: people like Iyad Allawi and Ahmed Chalabi had an air of entitlement, assuming that people would vote for them merely because they were modern, progressive and famous. They didn't bother to cr
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030184 →olicy in Lebanon - wholly dependent on Iran. And Iran without its Syrian ally is very far away from Hezbollah. Like Tehran, Hezbollah thus also wants al Assad to survive. Hezbollah joining Hamas in a confrontation with Israel would take the focus off the al Assad regime and portray his opponents as undermin
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031922 →pposition activists in meetings at the White House and US state department. Yet such movements have led us astray before, as when politicians such as Ahmed Chalabi misled the US about realities in Iraq. In truth, Mr Assad's regime is much less likely to fall than that of Muammer Gaddafi: there have been no high-
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031926 →Entities connected to both al Assad and Ahmed Chalabi

Tehran
LOCATION
Lebanon
LOCATION
Bashar al-Assad
PERSON
United States
LOCATION
Barack Obama
PERSON
North Africa
LOCATION
Tunisia
LOCATION
Hosni Mubarak
PERSON
Stratfor
ORGANIZATION
Fatah
ORGANIZATION
Muslim Brotherhood
ORGANIZATION
Levant
LOCATION
Tripoli
LOCATION
Saddam Hussein
PERSON
Cairo
LOCATION
Yemen
LOCATION
Ankara
LOCATION
Muammar Gaddafi
PERSON
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
PERSONthe Gaza Strip
LOCATION