Epstein Secrets

I a "0 4' 40 40 40 Sow* Carob &n. Wad Mswaram. lEA 4, I ■ NNE .42 ■ 100 20,0 300 4010 1011 Span* Caen Bank 111040440004 tra Page 4 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058855 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205039 EFTA01367323

. ixialiamaat ions.lainwe pojr0 But. there is a call on US onshore oil growth - the new swing producer Although we don't expect a rapid decline in Non-OPEC production, stronger than expected global crude demand will still result in a call on US onshore production growth, although not likely until 2H 20

bbl oil to incentivize and support this growth, 4) post-2017, Non-OPEC shortages to drive rapidly escalating call on US crude and price inflation. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have

l crude production (ex-OPEC, ex-US onshore, ex-NGLs), and the outlook for the coming 2-5 years. Key takeaways: 1) Don't expect a major roll-over in Non-OPEC supply through 2017, 2) we still see a call on US onshore growth of 500 Mb/d in 2017 with 2H16 ramp 3) we likely need $65-$70/bbl oil to incentiviz

3.46 Occidental Petroleum 10XY.NLUSD78.19 ExxonMobil (X0M.NLUSD85.20 Sourer Dane* &int Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Hold Buy Hold Buy Hold Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have

l crude production (ex-OPEC, ex-US onshore, ex-NGLs), and the outlook for the coming 2-5 years. Key takeaways: 1) Don't expect a major roll-over in Non-OPEC supply through 2017, 2) we still see a call on US onshore growth of 500 Mb/d in 2017 with 2H16 ramp 3) we likely need $65-$70/bbl oil to incentiviz

th barrels, with nearly 380 Mb/d expected online between 2015-2017, vs. an average of 35 Mb/d of annual, projected driven increase from 2009-2013. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058854 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205038 EFTA01367322

017, we estimate annual, major project-driven growth barrels of 1380 Mb/d, vs. the historical rate of 970 Mb/d between 2004- 2013, supporting annual Non-OPEC supply growth of 500 Mb/d through 2017. Leading drivers: US GoM, Brazil, Canada, and slower declines on recent redevelopment projects in the North

following recent $100/bbl oil incentivized spend I woo MOO I 1200 1000 I NO / CO 2:0 0 13251Abld 0751Abld Sane De inch* tient Page 8 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058859 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205043 EFTA01367327

risk to the current supply outlook and decline rates may eventually tick higher, the reality is that those looking for a rapid negative response in Non-OPEC production are likely to be disappointed. The reason? 1) Despite frequent jokes to the contrary, 4+ years of -$100/bbl crude generated significant

growth SMIMMIdell 15% Seta Oast -* 14taditabseal* !EA apses Ice Is al LiMilleiVado PRIMA:gangly Savor Daalithe Bet Med A Oder" lEst walinIell Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 11 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058862 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205046 EFTA01367330

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Figure 15: Brazil and Canada: Exclude them and Non-OPEC crude production is down -1500 MMIard horn 2014-2020. include them and production is up 400 Mbid 43000 38000 r , 1 . 1 r________, 23000 180

in America Other Asia OECD China Australia Malaysia Angola GoM Caspian Sea Brazil Canada Sotto* Dainthe Bert IJ ■ ■ -500 0 500 1000 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058861 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205045 EFTA01367329

cted to be relatively flat through 2020. Figure 13: ,_014-20 I 7 Cumulative Growth (Mbid) Figure 14 2014.2020 Cumulative Growth (Mbrkt Mexico MI Non-OPEC Mickile East Colombia ■ North Sea • Alaska r Caspian Sea India Europe Non-OECD Other Non-OECD Asia Angola Other FSU Australia Other Non

4 XII WI Sunrise 4044 Am.4- 44 Causaha 104444 C44440 • Alisel• Macy Ira 0141vre Onstram A XIS 31/S IA Son . Detach. Sent Koos moriena• Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 13 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058864 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205048 EFTA01367332

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Figure 22: While the current Non-OPEC production mix is .-V3 medium Extra Light Li 1% ght 15% Extra Heavy 1% Heavy 17% Medium 66% Sower Punch, eat 1410o0PAaalerum IRA Han/ b

0.6) • (0.8) co O .6 LL Sane !EA °nano en co 9 2010 2011 2009 "012 Month IEA Forecast was Made CO 0 a) 0 0 0 .— 0 it) m g 0 O Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. o CV CV a O. a) tr) 2014 C') ro) LL 2015 g el; ti Page 9 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058860 CONFIDENTIAL

fe (ex US. Canada) Sane Detach* M. Vitat Irnoine •Shallow •OW IlUDW •Canada Offshore. Oil Sands s LNG There are clearly risks to this outlook, as Non-OPEC supply has historically disappointed (see figure below), but there is no avoiding the fact that the outlook for Non-OPEC supply is more robust than

h story. Please see page 43 for more details on Brazil. 'Figure 66: lEA Non-OPEC supply projections Month lEA Forecast was Made ara 1al Dna. art Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. as Page 39 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058890 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205074 EFTA01367357

d Crude Inventory Builds A 4# San', dissent Se* ?EA I \ ,--\, i \ 7 \ 1 41141° +f "lied' ft' a it ---,, - \,, 1 ‘ ! ‘ i' i \ .., Y Non-OPEC Supply Disappointment There are clearly risks to this outlook, as Non-OPEC supply has historically disappointed (see figure below), but there is no