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Eye on the Market, July 25, 2011
e caveat that many plans are not crystal clear what baseline they are using, or what steps they recommend to get to that baseline first. For example: the Gang of Six state that they used the President’s budget as a baseline (scored by CBO in March 2011), reduced deficits by $3.7 trillion, and ended up with a 71% d
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025215 →1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Debt limit to gov. receipts nd Source: OMB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lowered. By the end of the process, we’re stil
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025215 →rings, measuring 2.5 inches square. The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not b
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025220 →Microsoft Word - 07-25-11 - EOTM - White Castle.docx
pact 31 million filers in 2012 (and raise $132 billion in revenue), compared to 4 million filers in 2011 (and $39 billion in revenue). * For example: the Gang of Six state that they used the President’s budget as a baseline (scored by CBO in March 201 1), reduced deficits by $3.7 trillion, and ended up with a 71%
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025221 →pts 30% —> 2x 20% 1x 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Source: OMB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lowered. By the end of the process, we’re stil
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025221 →cap growth stocks Post-dividend free cash flow margin ‘71 ‘74 ‘77 '80 '83 ‘86 '89 '92 '95 '98 ‘01 '04 ‘07 '10 Source: Empirical Research Partners. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer CBO Congressional Budget Office OMB Office of Management and Budget EFSF European Financial Stability Facility FICA Federa
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025225 →Eye on the Market, July 25, 2011
e caveat that many plans are not crystal clear what baseline they are using, or what steps they recommend to get to that baseline first. For example: the Gang of Six state that they used the President's budget as a baseline (scored by CBO in March 2011), reduced deficits by $3.7 trillion, and ended up with a 71% d
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031159 →islation is a rocky but healthy way for a democracy to decide whether mega-deficits are in the long-term public interest. Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lowered. By the end of the process, we're stil
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031159 →s been below consensus, which would be consistent with the recent batch of reports indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and service sector surveys. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer Notes [a] Bundesbank President Weidmann, in response to last week's package: "By transferring significant risks to the suppo
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031163 →Entities connected to both Michael Cembalest and the Gang of Six

JPMorgan Chase
ORGANIZATIONJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC
ORGANIZATIONthe European Monetary Union
ORGANIZATION
Bundesbank
ORGANIZATION
Barack Obama
PERSON
the Institute of International Finance
ORGANIZATION
Ronald Reagan
PERSON
Empirical Research Partners
ORGANIZATION
Mitch McConnell
PERSON
Moody’s
ORGANIZATION
Harry Reid
PERSON
Maastricht
LOCATIONthe Monetary Union
ORGANIZATION
Belgium
LOCATION
Bernard Connolly
PERSON
Office of Management and Budget
ORGANIZATION
Eurostat
ORGANIZATION
Eleanor Roosevelt
PERSON
the Heritage Foundation
ORGANIZATION
FactSet
ORGANIZATION