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h is waging a ferocious war against its own separatist Kurds, will be particularly concerned about developments in Syria's Kurdish region, although Ankara's handling of Iraqi Kurdish autonomy suggests it may be more inclined to opt for a strategy of co- option than of intervention. EFTA00701764 Stil
gime began to recalculate the probability of survival and their interests. The regime has not unraveled, but it is unraveling. The speculation over al Assad's whereabouts and heavy fighting in Damascus is simply part of the regime's problems. Rumors, whether true or not, create uncertainty that the regime
g, if and when it comes, may involve Turkey and Iran. Turkey wants to replace the entire regime structure; Iran wants the opposite. That's why both Ankara and Tehran will need to compromise, identifying high-ranking Syrians, probably military, who will protect each country's interests and upon whom a
the Syrian leader. It is true that Iran's prospects of keeping Syria as its own Mediterranean outpost are probably linked with the survivability of al Assad's regime. But his removal might well hasten the slide into chaos within Syria and in adjacent Lebanon, rather than slow it. Al Assad's departure coul
ned that trend." For years,Turkey had been forced to wait at Europe's gate, but now the country has found a new self-confidence. The government in Ankara has said that EU membership remains a EFTA_R1_00298540 EFTA01884059 long-term goal, but that it won't come at any price. "We still believe that
84025 preserving Syria's secular military regime without al Assad. But it is unclear how long a Western-backed regime resting on the structure of al Assad's Syria would survive. Even the best outcome has its own danger. And while Lebanon itself has been reasonably stable in recent years, when Syria catc
Entities connected to both Ankara and al Assad's

Barack Obama
PERSON
United States
LOCATION
Bashar al-Assad
PERSON
George W. Bush
PERSON
Benjamin Netanyahu
PERSON
Tehran
LOCATION
Lebanon
LOCATION
Damascus
LOCATION
Bill Clinton
PERSON
Saddam Hussein
PERSON
Middle East
LOCATION
Terje Rod-Larsen
PERSON
Samantha Power
PERSON
the Persian Gulf
LOCATION
Bahrain
LOCATION
Mitt Romney
PERSONSinai
LOCATION
State Department
ORGANIZATION
Stratfor
ORGANIZATION
Tartus
LOCATION