Epstein Secrets

Health Care vs. Energy & Financials 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 Tech + Health Care Energy + Financials Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Compustat, S&P Earnings weights of Tech & Health Care vs. Energy & Financials S&P EPS estimates & targets: 2015E S&P EPS: $119 2015 end S&P target: 2100

ed by Health Care and big consumer oriented Tech firms. We expect growth to slow at these two S&P segments, but remain key growth drivers. II2016E S&P EPS of $125 is up 5% on 4% sales growth, flat margins and 1% share shrink. Sales should turn positive in 2016 as commodity and currency drags diminish

oil and strong $ weighed on S&P EPS Weak oil and Russian default weighed on S&P EPS Recession S&P 500 Trailing 4-qtr EPS (y/y) Source: IBES, Compustat, Deutsche Bank CAGR avg. Page 10 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986

8 to $125 on stronger dollar, lower oil assumptions We have long cautioned that every 10% appreciation in the dollar vs. mature currencies drags on S&P EPS growth by 2.5%. Every dime the Euro declines vs. USD hits S&P EPS by $1. Every $5/bbl oil price decline hits S&P EPS by $1, net of small benefits

49 47 60 138 EFTA01476503 49 393 83 53 90 112 308 84 66 187 54 55 54 74 35 341 69 20 95 62 37 112 Source: Deutsche Bank, Compustat, Thomson Reuters *Net Buyback Yield is calculated as (trailing 12-month buyback expenditures less option exercise proceeds and less stock option ex

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