Epstein Secrets

3.6 -3.3 -2.5 -3.4 -9.7 -7.6 -3.2 62.0 120.0 175.0 250.0 4.6 -0.3 -0.9 CA bal., % GDP Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research 0.2 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 41 EFTA01476081 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Bond Market Strategy: Peak policy divergence IIThe

0.25% 5.0% 2.5% 3% 6.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.59 3.37 3.65 9.33 2.25 Figure 7: Our intrinsic valuation model S&P 500 Capi tal ized EPS Valuat ion Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 EPS DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 EPS EFTA01476121 "Normal 2015E" EPS / 2015E EPS Accounting quality adjustment to pro forma EPS No

7.0% Consumer Staples 21.0 20.5 Airlines Under - weight 10.2% 5.0% Industrials 16.4 16.1 7.3 8.3 Building Products Air Freight & Logistics Commercial Services & Supplies Professional Services Road & Rail Chemicals 3.0% 2.5% Materials 17.7 16.5 11.3 10.9 EFTA01476126 20.4 18.8 12.1 11.6 18.5 17.8 17.3 16.0

el. We set DPS equals to EPS and assume long-term growth is only inflation. Figure 42: Capitalize steady state earnings at the real cost of equity Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 EPS DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 EPS "Normal 2015E" EPS / 2015E EPS Accounting quality adjustment to pro forma EPS Normal 2015E S&P

Staples 20.6 20.1 Airlines Underweight 10.3% 8.5% EFTA01476319 Industrials 16.8 16.5 7.3 8.3 Building Products Air Freight & Logistics Commercial Services & Supplies Industrial Conglomerates Professional Services Road & Rail Chemicals 3.0% 2.6% Materials 17.9 16.7 24.2 18.8 19.6 23.0 20.1 15.9 17.3

Insights 20 November 2015 Page 26 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 52: Our S&P Intrinsic Valuation Model S&P 500 Capitalized EPS Valuation Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 EPS DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 EPS "Normal 2015E" EPS / 2015E EPS Accounting quality adjustment to pro forma EPS Normal 2015E S&P

Staples 20.6 20.1 Airlines Underweight 10.3% 8.5% EFTA01476465 Industrials 16.8 16.5 7.3 8.3 Building Products Air Freight & Logistics Commercial Services & Supplies Industrial Conglomerates Professional Services Road & Rail Chemicals 3.0% 2.6% Materials 17.9 16.7 24.2 18.8 19.6 23.0 20.1 15.9 17.3