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3.6 -3.3 -2.5 -3.4 -9.7 -7.6 -3.2 62.0 120.0 175.0 250.0 4.6 -0.3 -0.9 CA bal., % GDP Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research 0.2 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 41 EFTA01476081 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Bond Market Strategy: Peak policy divergence IIThe

0.25% 5.0% 2.5% 3% 6.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.59 3.37 3.65 9.33 2.25 Figure 7: Our intrinsic valuation model S&P 500 Capi tal ized EPS Valuat ion Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 EPS DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 EPS EFTA01476121 "Normal 2015E" EPS / 2015E EPS Accounting quality adjustment to pro forma EPS No

0 15.8 14.6 14.3 21.3 19.9 10.5 9.5 16.9 16.4 12.4 12.7 11.8 11.2 Consumer Finance 14.7 13.6 Diversified Financial Services Insurance REITs Real Estate Mgmt. & Development Thrifts & Mortgage Finance Equa lweight Consumer 13.1% 13.0% Discretionary 20.9 19.3 Auto Components Automobiles Distributors

el. We set DPS equals to EPS and assume long-term growth is only inflation. Figure 42: Capitalize steady state earnings at the real cost of equity Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 EPS DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 EPS "Normal 2015E" EPS / 2015E EPS Accounting quality adjustment to pro forma EPS Normal 2015E S&P

.5 29.8 26.6 19.0 17.9 16.6 16.1 21.4 20.2 12.2 11.7 17.5 16.3 12.1 11.5 Diversified Financial Services 15.0 13.9 Insurance 11.7 11.2 REITs Real Estate Mgmt. & Development Thrifts & Mortgage Finance 15.0 14.7 21.2 19.8 10.8 9.8 17.1 16.5 12.6 13.0 Auto Components Automobiles Distributors Equalwei

Insights 20 November 2015 Page 26 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 52: Our S&P Intrinsic Valuation Model S&P 500 Capitalized EPS Valuation Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 EPS DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 EPS "Normal 2015E" EPS / 2015E EPS Accounting quality adjustment to pro forma EPS Normal 2015E S&P

.5 29.8 26.6 19.0 17.9 16.6 16.1 21.4 20.2 12.2 11.7 17.5 16.3 12.1 11.5 Diversified Financial Services 15.0 13.9 Insurance 11.7 11.2 REITs Real Estate Mgmt. & Development Thrifts & Mortgage Finance 15.0 14.7 21.2 19.8 10.8 9.8 17.1 16.5 12.6 13.0 Auto Components Automobiles Distributors Equalwei