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.com TheHouseView Special — 9 December 2015 20 EFTA01476297 Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank"). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public

y of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investor's home jurisdiction. United States: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated, a member of FINRA,

conditions have eased a bit [email protected] http://houseview.research.db.com TheHouseView Special — 9 December 2015 EFTA01476290 I At NAIRU, broader slack measures also diminished 2010 Note: (*) Our distance measures follow a speech by St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard on 17 July 20

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of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investor's home jurisdiction. United States: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated, a member of FIN

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nflation in the US has moved up over the last three months and has a fair degree of catch up to do with the decline in unemployment relative to the NAIRU and rental vacancies. The dollar up cycle should have 10% to go medium term, but speed breakers are now in place to slow the pace. The US trade-wei

arc of MBS supply is worth some attention. Outstanding agency MBS looks like it is on track to finish the first quarter down $5 billion, well below Deutsche Bank's forecast of a $20 billion gain. Supply again is proving difficult to predict. Broad: • Neutral the MBS-Treasury basis • Long 30-year 4.0% MLB a

act, continues to do that. Eurodollar contracts show rates well below the Fed dots through 2018 and beyond. Low growth, low inflation, even a lower NAIRU should keep yields below Fed dots. Against the market's forward rates, the curve looks broadly like fair value. Neutral on rates. The v!ev., in sp

arc of MBS supply is worth some attention. Outstanding agency MBS looks like it is on track to finish the first quarter down $5 billion, well below Deutsche Bank's forecast of a $20 billion gain. Supply again is proving difficult to predict. Broad: • Neutral the MBS-Treasury basis • Long 30-year 4.0% MLB a

act, continues to do that. Eurodollar contracts show rates well below the Fed dots through 2018 and beyond. Low growth, low inflation, even a lower NAIRU should keep yields below Fed dots. Against the market's forward rates, the curve looks broadly like fair value. Neutral on rates. The v!ev., in sp

Matthew Luzzetti, (44) 20 754 73288 Michael Spencer, (852) 2203 8303 EFTA01475995 Mark Wall, (44) 20 754 52087 Torsten Slok, (1) 212 250 2155 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 17 EFTA01475996 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity US: Dollar drag IIOn the back of weak manufacturin

th pick up over the period ahead. We see the unemployment rate falling into the mid-4% area over the next couple years, putting it noticeably below NAIRU, but not by enough to effect more than a gradual pickup in wage and price inflation. We see core PCE inflation returning to near 2% two years hence