Epstein Secrets

igure 1: The basic balance has turned positive... Figure 2: ...as current account surplus outweigh the net FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Figure 3: EUR/USD strongly correlated (0.88) with bilateral basic balance with the US Figure 4: Bilateral bas

algebra. EM graphs available upon request. Page 14 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01464509 28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Figure 6: USD/CAD is cheap vs. BEER FV Figure 7: AUD/USD is quite expensive vs. BEER FV Source: DB FX Research Source: DB FX Research Figure 8: NZD/USD is very exp

long term real rates Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg EFTA01476084 Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, BEA, CAO Similarly, the output gap has mirrored the dynamics of credit, as the unemployment rate peaked mid-2013 in the euro area vs. late 2009 i

y unchanged, with EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD seen at 0.90, 128 and 1.27 respectively. We anticipate extremes in the likes of AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD at 0.62, 0.53 I nd 1.40 respectively. In macro terms, how 2016 shapes up will be heavily influenced by whether the main macro driver is the Fed or

gure 35: The basic balance remains in an uptrend... Figure 36: ...as current account surplus outweighs the FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Page 30 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc EFTA01464361 30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Fina

CLP PLN SEK GBP KRW JPY INR ZAR ARS EFTA01464349 30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax Figure 6: USD/CAD is cheap vs. BEER FV Figure 7: AUD/USD is quite expensive vs. BEER FV 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 CAD BEER Fair Value Spot 80 82 84 86 88 90 9