Epstein Secrets

igure 1: The basic balance has turned positive... Figure 2: ...as current account surplus outweigh the net FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Figure 3: EUR/USD strongly correlated (0.88) with bilateral basic balance with the US Figure 4: Bilateral bas

87 1.22 1.25 1.25 1.25 - 1.22 1.22 1.22 7.48 7.30 7.20 7.10 - 7.51 7.54 7.61 8.45 8.20 8.10 8.00 - 8.47 8.49 8.54 Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Hungary Indonesia IDR/USD 9,686 9,950 9,900 9,850 (Fwd. Rates) Malaysia MYR/USD 3.10 3.07 3.05 3.02 (Fwd. Rates) 3.12 3.13 3.16

3.0 3.5 4.0 2012 2013 PCE deflator Compensation per employee Employment Real total compensation 2014 2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Eurostat 2016 2017 Figure 3: Investment spending recovery has flattened EA non-construction investment spending (lhs) German mfg orders from EA ex heavy

Rising means easier, falling means tighter # of standard deviations 20140101 20140618 20141203 20150520 20151104 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics LP Figure 7: Bottom-up fiscal stance estimates underestimating extent of fiscal easing in 2016 1.5 0.5 1 -0.5 0 -1.5 -1

gure 35: The basic balance remains in an uptrend... Figure 36: ...as current account surplus outweighs the FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Page 30 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc EFTA01464361 30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Fina

87 1.23 1.25 1.25 1.24 - 1.23 1.23 1.23 7.86 7.35 7.25 7.15 - 7.88 7.91 7.97 8.58 8.25 8.05 8.00 - 8.60 8.62 8.66 Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Emerging Europe Currency Czech Rep. EUR/CZK (Fwd. Rates) USD/CZK (Fwd. Rates) Hungary EUR/HUF Latin America Currency Argentin