Epstein Secrets

igure 1: The basic balance has turned positive... Figure 2: ...as current account surplus outweigh the net FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Figure 3: EUR/USD strongly correlated (0.88) with bilateral basic balance with the US Figure 4: Bilateral bas

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 09 10 11 12 to return to lOy ave of current account (FEER) PPP adjusted for productivity and terms of trade (BEER Source: Deutsche Bank Page 10 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01464500 28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Figure 21: Almost All FX Weaken When Dollar Strengthens. le

eas Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com. 3. Country-Specific Disclosures Australia and

sider this report in deciding to trade on a proprietary basis. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investor's home jurisdiction. In the U.S. this report is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a member of th

long term real rates Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg EFTA01476084 Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, BEA, CAO Similarly, the output gap has mirrored the dynamics of credit, as the unemployment rate peaked mid-2013 in the euro area vs. late 2009 i

3.6 -3.3 -2.5 -3.4 -9.7 -7.6 -3.2 62.0 120.0 175.0 250.0 4.6 -0.3 -0.9 CA bal., % GDP Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research 0.2 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 41 EFTA01476081 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Bond Market Strategy: Peak policy divergence IIThe

0.25% 5.0% 2.5% 3% 6.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.59 3.37 3.65 9.33 2.25 Figure 7: Our intrinsic valuation model S&P 500 Capi tal ized EPS Valuat ion Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 EPS DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 EPS EFTA01476121 "Normal 2015E" EPS / 2015E EPS Accounting quality adjustment to pro forma EPS No

3.0 3.5 4.0 2012 2013 PCE deflator Compensation per employee Employment Real total compensation 2014 2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Eurostat 2016 2017 Figure 3: Investment spending recovery has flattened EA non-construction investment spending (lhs) German mfg orders from EA ex heavy

Matthew Luzzetti, (44) 20 754 73288 Michael Spencer, (852) 2203 8303 EFTA01475995 Mark Wall, (44) 20 754 52087 Torsten Slok, (1) 212 250 2155 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 17 EFTA01475996 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity US: Dollar drag IIOn the back of weak manufacturin

gure 35: The basic balance remains in an uptrend... Figure 36: ...as current account surplus outweighs the FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Page 30 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc EFTA01464361 30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Fina

eas Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com. 3. Country-Specific Disclosures Australia and