Epstein Secrets

1960-2014 16.0 19852014 17.6 1995-2014 18.6 2005-2014 15.9 Sectors/Industries: Health Care, Tech Health Care, Tech, Consumer Disc. Tech, Health Care, some Consumer Big Banks, Mega-cap Tech Tech, Health Care, some Consumer Staples Be selective and valuation mindful Energy, Industrial Capital G

terest rates stayed very low despite better growth and tighter labor market Next 5%+ move is likely: Down Risk of near-term correction: Elevated "S&P PE stands on the shoulders of bonds." Thematic and sector strategy: Tilt toward: 1) Secular Growth Sectors - industries with strong sales growth in t

5% share shrink. Ex. Energy & Financials, as much less y/y litigation expense at Banks, 2015 S&P EPS was up 6% or 10% ex. 4% FX drag. Growth led by Health Care and big consumer oriented Tech firms. We expect growth to slow at these two S&P segments, but remain key growth drivers. II2016E S&P EPS of $125 i

476107 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity US Equity Strategy: Still-low treasury yields despite Fed hikes to boost S&P PE — Heavy tilts to Health Care & Tech IIWe recently cut 2016E S&P EPS by $3 to $125 on revised assumptions of even lower oil prices and a stronger do

markets. Industrials companies reported weak results and guidance. Sizable beats from Tech giants GOOG, MSFT & AMZN brightened 3Q earnings season. Health Care companies (PFE, BMY, GILD, BAX) had large beats on both EPS and sales. Large Oil & Gas companies (XOM, CVX, MPC, VLO) had big beats on EPS on very

big-cap banks and select retailers 3) Commodity and industrial capital goods producers, prefer Transports Risk of near-term correction: Moderate "S&P PE stands on the shoulders of bonds 2014A $118 17.4 $38 2015E $119 17.4 $41 2016 end target: 2250-2300 2016E EFTA01476449 $125 18.2 $44