Epstein Secrets

oratory, you couldn't have done much better. Syria presents a profoundly different situation. U.S. policy has always been driven by the hope that the Assads would change and the fear of what might replace them if they fell. Three additional realities ensured a U.S. response quite different from the one fo

ng different. There simply is no reform option, and there never was. Genuine reform means dislodging the bricks holding up Assad- Makhlouf authority. Bashar Assad's open-ended presidency, the crony capitalism practiced by his cousin and other members of Syria's elite, the abuse practiced by the all-powerful secur

regimes lying between the Atlas Mountains and the Persian Gulf. Yet unlike the Muslim Brotherhood's rebellion in Hama, which shook the government of Bashar al-Assad's father Hafez in 1982, the Facebook rebellion seems curiously faceless. There are some signs of opposition violence with "plausible reports of securit

her cities including Baniyas and Latakia on the Mediterranean coast, as well as to the northern city of Homs and some suburbs of Damascus. * With the Alawi-dominated regime under threat, the HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030083 --- PAGE BREAK --- 25 struggle is showing ominous sectarian overtones. At Baniyas, where

as made it difficult to discuss sectarian prejudice in public, which has sometimes kept hatreds bottled up. Some in the Sunni majority perceive the Assads as representatives of their sect and resent the entire community by extension. None of this makes sectarian conflict inevitable. Class and regiona

since the ascension of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey EFTA_R1_02029349 EFTA02689724 17 and Bashar al-Assad's inheritance of the Syrian presidency, relations have dramatically improved. Turkey invested enormous financial and political capital in Syria, esta

political capital in Syria, establishing a Levantine free trade zone and distancing itself from Israel. Erdogan extracted promises of reform from Bashar at the onset of the protests and then watched with increasingly visible consternation as the promises were broken. He warned Syria repeatedly again

choose their friends from all communities, sectarianism remains a real problem in Syria. The ruling family was born into the historically oppressed Alawi community. The Ottomans regarded Alawis as heretics rather than as "people of the book," and Alawis -- unlike Christians, Jews, and mainstream Shi

March, Syrian friends have told me, its shabiha militia tried to spark social breakdown in Latakia by pretending to be a Sunni mob while it shot up Alawi areas and an Alawi mob as it terrorized Sunni neighborhoods. Syrians say the regime is arming Alawi villages and wishfully thinking of a repeat of

U.S., Turkish and Saudi intelligence officers on the ground — and this new front reaching out to moderate Alawites and Christians who supported the Assads out of fear and agreeing to build a new order together that protects majority and minority rights. It would be wonderful to see the tyrannical Assa

mean that we have reached the end by any means, but it does mean that the precondition has been met for the fall of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. We have argued that so long as the military and security apparatus remain intact and effective, the regime could endure. Although they continue to

; by its attack on Syria's nuclear facility in 2007; and by its bid to destroy Hamas in its murderous assault on Gaza in 2008-9. From the start of Bashar al-Asad's presidency, Syria has faced relentless efforts by Israel and its complicit American ally to bring down the so- called `resistance axis' of Tehran-Da

tegists believe that it would be greatly to their country's advantage if Syria were dismembered and permanently weakened by the creation of a small Alawi state around the port-city of Latakia in the north-west, in much the same way as Iraq was dismembered and permanently weakened by the creation of

e Israeli concerns surrounding the collapse of Syria's Ba'athist party are legitimate. Washington should also consider the security consequences of Assad's ouster and avoid intervention in Syria. U.S. Intentions in Syria Following Syria's independence from French colonial rule, relations with the Un

rotherhood has resurrected itself to become the dominant group in the fragmented opposition movement pursuing a 14-month uprising against President Bashar al-Assad." The U.S. alliance with an Islamist organization that espouses anti-Western views may appear strange. However, this relationship is far from hist

that could make common cause with like-minded elements in Iraq and Lebanon. This is certainly not in anyone's interest ... Many in Syria, including Bashar, see the regime, more specifically the Baath party, as the last bastion of secularity against a seething rising tide of radical Islamic in Syria ..

e a rat out of his drainage pipe in Libya? Or something profoundly cruel, such as the YouTube video of a Syrian man buried alive by shovel-wielding Alawi thugs taunting the victim to recite "There is no God but God and Bashar is his Prophet"? Or, alternatively, will we look back and see photos of Sau

rs the uprising in Syria to be, to some extent, the handiwork of the United States and its European allies. This perception is fundamentally wrong: Assad's is an oppressive, minority-Alawi regime. It came to power via a 1970 coup. In 1982, the current dictator's father, then president Hafez al- Assad

akes in Muslim Brotherhood, Salafi and even al-Qaeda- affiliated factions. Despite President Obama's "reset" policy, Russia continues to support [4] Bashar al-Assad's brutal regime. But in a rare admission of reality, a senior Middle East hand acknowledged that Russia must step back. Mikhail Margelov, chair of th

some extent, the handiwork of the United States and its European allies. This perception is fundamentally wrong: Assad's is an oppressive, minority-Alawi regime. It came to power via a 1970 coup. In 1982, the current dictator's father, then president Hafez al- Assad, brought artillery and killed over

elections; and 6. Abolition of Article 8 of the constitution, which stipulates that the Baath Party is by law the ruling party in Syria. President Assad's speech to Parliament on March 31st was disappointing to many, who were expecting the speech to be a declaration of a new era of genuine reforms. H

nt, however, seems improbable; the rising tensions are likely an expression of resentment directed at the powerful ruling family, who belong to the Alawi sect, and a show of disapproval of the Syrian-Iranian alliance. Syrian protesters have advanced the following demands: 1. Repeal of the emergency l

enough to help Iraq. Iraqi’s are worried that an Assad exit will push Iran to double down on Iraq. JS:

untry together. MO: Iraq is most vulnerable to Iran when it is weak and divided and we haven’t done enough to help Iraq. Iraqi’s are worried that an Assad exit will push Iran to double down on Iraq. JS: limit Iran’s influence on Iraq by isolating Iran in region. Reducing Iran’s incluence in region 1s k

maging to our interests in Syria and Iran. 4. KSA we should consider guarantying their integrity. 5. Iraq — NAM bring it towards a break up. Bet on Alawi 6. ME peace process — we need a big bet. Incrementalism won’t work. Activities threaten our vital interests. No big bets can succeed if the US has