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Eye on the Market, July 25, 2011
that the EU lending facility would have to increase from 440 bn to 1.7 trillion Euros, mostly from Germany). Italy faces a multi-notch downgrade from Moody’s, which is not going to help. As we discussed two weeks ago, Italy has been a model citizen in terms of running low budget deficits for 20 years, but
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025217 →rings, measuring 2.5 inches square. The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not b
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025220 →Microsoft Word - 07-25-11 - EOTM - White Castle.docx
ility would have to increase from 440 bn to 1.7 trillion Euros, mostly from Germany). Italy es EFSM 600 400 200 faces a multi-notch downgrade from Moody’s, which is not going to help. As we discussed two weeks ago, Italy has been a model citizen in terms of running low budget deficits for 20 years, but
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025223 →cap growth stocks Post-dividend free cash flow margin ‘71 ‘74 ‘77 '80 '83 ‘86 '89 '92 '95 '98 ‘01 '04 ‘07 '10 Source: Empirical Research Partners. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer CBO Congressional Budget Office OMB Office of Management and Budget EFSF European Financial Stability Facility FICA Federa
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025225 →On today's financial market developments
n Monetary Union (as it is currently configured) could be facing its final stretch. Today’s reported move by Italian regulators to seize documents at Moody’s regarding declines in Italian bank stocks is an indication of the pressure the system is under, and the possible search for scapegoats. I don’t think
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025226 →y among multinationals with strong balance sheets, high dividends and which trade at very low multiples, something we reviewed earlier in the week.” Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Ce
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025227 →Microsoft Word - 08-04-11 - EOTM - Market update.docx
n Monetary Union (as it is currently configured) could be facing its final stretch. Today’s reported move by Italian regulators to seize documents at Moody’s regarding declines in Italian bank stocks is an indication of the pressure the system is under, and the possible search for scapegoats. I don’t think
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025229 →y among multinationals with strong balance sheets, high dividends and which trade at very low multiples, something we reviewed earlier in the week.” Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Ce
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025230 →J.P. Morgan Eye on the Market, April 9, 2012
Mark Twain, is that reports of municipal bonds’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. From 1970 through to the end of 2011, municipal bonds rated by Moody’s experienced a grand total of 71 defaults among 17,700 issuers (11 of which occurred during 2010 and 2011). General obligation bonds accounted for 5 d
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025238 →n debt None Bank lending te HH/NFC, last 12 months None AANFC = households and non-financial corporations Sources: (MF, OECD, EU, World Bank, CEPS Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer [a] Example: here’s a link to a 2007 article by Austan Goolsbee, former Chairman of the Council of Economic advisors and a
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025240 →Microsoft Word - 04-09-2012 - EOTM - The Day of the Triffids.docx
Mark Twain, is that reports of municipal bonds’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. From 1970 through to the end of 2011, municipal bonds rated by Moody’s experienced a grand total of 71 defaults among 17,700 issuers (11 of which occurred during 2010 and 2011). General obligation bonds accounted for 5 d
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025245 →al aid and ECB financing to prevent another one. _| Bank lending to HH/NFC, last 12 months None . HH/NFC = households and non-financial corporations Michael Cembalest Sources: IMF, OECD, EU, World Bank, CEPS Chief Investment Officer Sources “States of Bankruptcy, Part I: The Coming State Pensions Crisis”, Jot Eco
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025246 →Entities connected to both Moody’s and Michael Cembalest

JPMorgan Chase
ORGANIZATIONJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC
ORGANIZATION
Barack Obama
PERSONthe European Monetary Union
ORGANIZATION
Bundesbank
ORGANIZATION
George W. Bush
PERSON
Empirical Research Partners
ORGANIZATION
Outlook
ORGANIZATION
the Institute of International Finance
ORGANIZATION
FactSet
ORGANIZATION
Angela Merkel
PERSON
Bill Clinton
PERSON
John F. Kennedy
PERSON
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ORGANIZATION
Belgium
LOCATION
Malaysia
LOCATION
Venezuela
LOCATION
Ronald Reagan
PERSON
Eurostat
ORGANIZATION
Cynthia Nixon
PERSON