Epstein Secrets

-2 25% “4 2.0% 6 < 0 -8 1.5% 10 1.0% -12 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau

h Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather, the Lehman shock and other factors, payroll growth does not look quite as good as

cation technology, due to the methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the BEA. If the price indices do not ad

rse. Stability is measured using a model based on return on equity, earnings growth, financial leverage and beta. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Empirical Research Partners. po Exhibit 64: Spain 5-Year Credit Default Swap and Relative Equity Performance The dramatic reduction in Spanish default risks suggests equity v

6.4 4 | 20% 29 10% 27 2.5 0% 2.3 -10% °” Lennar KBHome Toll Hovnanian DR Horton NVR Pultegroup 2001 2008 2008 200% e008 ann .. Source: BuildFax. Empirical Research Partners. Source: Corporate Reports. Empirical Research Partners. Has the data really been that good? I heard better US economic data has a lot to do with th

c-12 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CBO, Bloomberg. Assumes CBO Alternative Case for estimates. Source: Federal Reserve Board ,Bureau of Labor Statistics . They are amazing, but no one knows how long they can be sustained. Even Summers and DeLong concede that “even if it is granted that the stimulus c

nd 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 benefits as a percentage Total increase in pre-tax margins of revenue Source: Corporate reports, Empirical Research Partners. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Standard & Poor's, Empirical Research Partners. Last week's train wreck of a labor rep

goods from China, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, percent 25% • 2005 • 2011E 20% - 15% 10% 5% 0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 1 2% 0% Taiwan Mexico China Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Empirical Research Partners. Philippines 2000 2007 2010 Source: UN Comtrade, Empirical Research Partners. To summarize, we expect today's margins to