Epstein Secrets

ors —2011 Worst Performance Sectors Payout Ratios are at Historic Lows Jan-10 Apr-10 Source: Bloomberg, As of 1/4/12 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 9 Utilities, Healthcare, Telecom I Financials, Materials, Industrials Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 J.P.Morgan EFTA_R1_02049751 EFTA02696373 Tactical Op

A_R1_02049745 EFTA02696367 Macro ...But This Is Not 2008 0 0 CO z z z cc O a. cc O. a a. 0 Source: Bloomberg Sources: FRB, BEA, ECB, Eurostat, BoE, Office for National Statistics. BoJ. Cabinet Office. Data as of O4 2011. U.S. Households Deleveraging %GDP 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80%

strials remain a significant concern. Most of the rest of the market, both the S&P and the Russell 2000, seems fully valued except a few big Banks, Utilities, Airlines, and some of our specific stock picks. We do not believe that a recession looms or that S&P profits will fall again in 2016. We also do

3.0 3.5 4.0 2012 2013 PCE deflator Compensation per employee Employment Real total compensation 2014 2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Eurostat 2016 2017 Figure 3: Investment spending recovery has flattened EA non-construction investment spending (lhs) German mfg orders from EA ex heavy

and Industrials worry us a great deal. Most of the rest of the market, both the S&P and the Russell 2000, seem fully valued except a few big Banks, Utilities, Airlines, and some of our specific stock picks. EFTA01476108 Fortunately, Health Care and Tech represent 35% of the S&P 500. These two sectors d

long term real rates Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg EFTA01476084 Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, BEA, CAO Similarly, the output gap has mirrored the dynamics of credit, as the unemployment rate peaked mid-2013 in the euro area vs. late 2009 i