Epstein Secrets

ors —2011 Worst Performance Sectors Payout Ratios are at Historic Lows Jan-10 Apr-10 Source: Bloomberg, As of 1/4/12 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 9 Utilities, Healthcare, Telecom I Financials, Materials, Industrials Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 J.P.Morgan EFTA_R1_02049751 EFTA02696373 Tactical Op

Source: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, As of 12/30/11 Note: Debt Service is Debt payments as % of disposed° personal income Source: Federal Reserve Bank, ECB 4 J.P.Morgan EFTA_R1_02049746 EFTA02696368 GIO: Approach to Absolute Return Investing We are asset class agnostic TOP OPPORTUNISTIC INVE

its structured products or options exposures. Structured products and options are not insured by the Federal Deposit insurance Corporation (FDIC). the Federal Reserve Board, or any other governmental agency. In discussion of options and other strategies, results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cite

ODS 900 Model N Inc USD Technology 0.00% (113,950) 518.234 20.Mar.13 15.50 20.26 14284 20-Mar-13 HE 4,000 Hawaiian Electric Inds USD Utilities 4.74% (1107,000) 5107.398 20.Mar.13 26.75 26.85 5398 21-Mar-13 ENTA 400 Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc USD mourner. Non-cyclic 0.00% (15.6

its structured products or options exposures. Structured products and options are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). the Federal Reserve Board, or any other governmental agency. In discussion of options and other strategies. result and risks are based scaly on hypothetical examples cited;

0 Molycorp Inc USD Basic Materials 0.00% ($15,000) $17A00 25..lan.13 6.00 6.96 52.400 29-Jan-13 PNY 6,500 Piedmont Natural Gas Co USD Utilities 3.56% (5208.000) 5207.410 30..lan.13 32.00 31.91 ($590) 31 -Jan-13 KR% 1,500 Keryx Biopharmaceuticals USD snstoner. Nowt-cyclic 0.00%

to its structured products or options expanses. Structured products and option are not Insured by the Federal Deposit insurance Corporation g Dig. the Federal Reserve Board, Or any other governmental In discussion of options and other strategies. result and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited; actual

strials remain a significant concern. Most of the rest of the market, both the S&P and the Russell 2000, seems fully valued except a few big Banks, Utilities, Airlines, and some of our specific stock picks. We do not believe that a recession looms or that S&P profits will fall again in 2016. We also do

ill weigh further on import prices, likely suppressing consumer goods inflation through 2017. These projections are corroborated by simulations of the Federal Reserve Board's FRB/US macroeconomic model. Therefore, we have cut our 2016 real GDP growth forecast (Q4/04) to 2.2% from 2.7%. Additionally, we have lowered our 2

and Industrials worry us a great deal. Most of the rest of the market, both the S&P and the Russell 2000, seem fully valued except a few big Banks, Utilities, Airlines, and some of our specific stock picks. EFTA01476108 Fortunately, Health Care and Tech represent 35% of the S&P 500. These two sectors d

1-90, Euro area and US Q4-07 Vertical lines indicate the peak in deleveraging in US and EA Source: : Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank Research US -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Figure 2: _and long term real rate dynamics Japan Euro area

preferred cyclical sectors. We also like Energy. e We are cautious on Materials, where we expect margin pressure to continue, as well as Telecom and Utilities, due to high valuations. Strategic (1 to 2 years) °¢ We like medium-sized US companies, which should benefit from robust earnings growth in the lon

ions supports a gradual rise in Treasury yields. ¢ However, over a six-month horizon, the extension of Operation Twist (OT) until the end of 2012 by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will limit the upside potential in yields. As of late, the probability of even more stimulus in the form of quantitative easing from the Fed ha

ly - the September report exaggerated the pace of improvement. Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation stays slightly below or close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. UBS forecasts real GDP growth of 2.0% in 3Q 2012 (consensus: 1.8%) and 1.6% in 4Q 2012 (consensus: 1.9%). The Fed has added considerabl

arnings growth. Our sector stance in the US Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials T Healthcare ndustrials Telecom Utilities aterials Viclelulsalel vy) vial ws Source: UBS Note: Past performance is not an indication of future returns. For further information please con