Epstein Secrets

ted real bond yield, inverted (rhs) -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Datastream, Bloomberg Finance LP Figure 2: We expect 14% EPS growth in the Euro area in 2016, driven by a cyclical rebound in earnings Euro area EPS growth U

1-90, Euro area and US Q4-07 Vertical lines indicate the peak in deleveraging in US and EA Source: : Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank Research US -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Figure 2: _and long term real rate dynamics Japan Euro area

isis highs. % 700 639 600 500 + 400 300 + 1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 Data through 03 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream. The anemic (but steady) pace of this recovery has fueled a debate about its causes. The theories fall into six categories: e A “hangover” from the

rms ¢ Investment in education and training This demographic aspect of secular stagnation is undeniable. In fact, an October 2016 paper by a team at the Federal Reserve Board, “Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics,””° shows that the slow pace of economic growth since 1980 and the more pronounced decline i

e negligible returns but come with downside risk, e.g., if the incoming Trump administration’s fiscal policy is more stimulative than we expect or if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at a more rapid pace than we expect. As we prepared our one- and five-year annualized expected returns for this Outlook and fi

r month’s level of 2.9%. Headline CPI dropped to 2.3% from 2./% and Core CPI ex-food and energy remain at a low 2.2%, unchanged from the prior month. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, Core PCE, also remains low at 2.0% which is in line with the Federal Reserve’s target, and unchanged from the prior mo

ients maintain their strategic allocation to US equities. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026905 --- PAGE BREAK --- Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver. Endnotes: (1) Kate Davidson and Sarah Chaney, “Fed Chair Powell Sees ‘Remarkably Positive Set of E

r month’s level of 2.9%. Headline CPI dropped to 2.3% from 2./% and Core CPI ex-food and energy remain at a low 2.2%, unchanged from the prior month. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, Core PCE, also remains low at 2.0% which is in line with the Federal Reserve's target, and unchanged from the prior mo

ation to US equities. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026920 --- PAGE BREAK --- Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Bank for International Settlements, Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver, International Monetary Fund, Teneo Intelligence. Endnotes: (1) Kate Davidson and Sarah Chaney, “F