Epstein Secrets

ions of the indignados, as they are called in Spain, and the aganaktismenoi (the outraged), as they say in Greece, are growing. And it's not just the Eurozone. Every single major project of the European Union is faltering. France and Italy are suggesting that the achievement of the Schengen area, in which 2

r more than a year now, Merkel has attempted to find the narrow — perhaps nonexistent — line where the minimum that can be done to save the embattled Eurozone periphery meets the maximum she thinks German public opinion will bear. She has then tried to win her Eurozone partners to that course. So far, it ha

rkel's leadership. If we are talking about the European economy and currency, Germany is the indispensable power. Only the combination of Germany and the European Central Bank, working in unison, has a chance of calming the mighty markets. For more than a year now, Merkel has attempted to find the narrow — perhaps nonexist

— FX Strategists George Saravelos and Robin Winkler show that their "Euroglut" hypothesis, first introduced in October 2014, is now a reality; the Eurozone has experienced an unprecedented shift in portfolio outflows that have helped keep global yields unusually low and caused dramatic weakness in the

ds unusually low and caused dramatic weakness in the Euro. CIO Flash ECB — Our CIO Office briefly touches upon the market disappointment following the European Central Bank meeting last week. CIO Flash CNY — In a separate report, our CIO Office discusses how the inclusion of Chinese yuan in the IMF reserve basket will

conditions supportive of growth. While we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to gradually shift to a more neutral stance

k 26 Pace of Federal Reserve Tightening 27 Low Expectations of a US Recession 28 29 30 30 31 33 Rising Influence of Populist Parties in the Eurozone Geopolitical Hot Spots Get Hotter Terrorism Escalates Cyberattacks Continue China Submerges Under Its Debt Burden and Capital Outflows US-China Re

wth of 4.6%, aided by healthy domestic growth, and a particularly well-capitalized® banking sector that has a lower nonperforming loan ratio than the Eurozone bank average. Furthermore, Spain is unlikely to face the same political uncertainty as Germany, France and Italy in 2017. We expect high single-digit

important contributor to US GDP growth. Growth has also begun to pick up in key areas of the emerging markets, including China and Brazil. While the Eurozone economy remains weak, we expect Q3 2012 to mark the bottom, and that growth will begin to get "less bad" from Q4 2012. Equities Equity markets have

continue to tap the primary market if they ask for a support program? ¢ How much more support will Greece receive and will it be able to stay in the Eurozone next year? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Austerity and weak growth ¢ We think the Eurozone economy troughed in 3Q. We expect flattish growth in 4Q 20

tion of US Treasury and German Bund yields are important for EM fixed income spreads, especially for USD- and EUR-denominated bonds. Key date: Dec 6, European Central Bank meeting Capital flows The European debt crisis may lead to further periods of outflows and weaker prices, which could offer attractive entry levels

36 UBS Economy The successful formation of a Greek government after the June 17 elections has reduced the risk of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone. However, the Euro debt crisis persists, and further reform and consolidation efforts in Spain and Italy are needed. In the US, economic data weakene

quality. ¢ The economic recovery fails to gain momentum in the second half of the year. Credit demand fails to improve further as some of the recent European Central Bank (ECB) data indicates. The ECB cuts rates. ¢ Further quantitative easing by the Fed would be supportive for Bunds and speaks for lower yields. & Negat