Epstein Secrets

old Debt (LHS) —Debt Service (RHS) 1985 1990 % Disposable Income 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, As of 12/30/11 Note: Debt Service is Debt payments as % of disposed° personal income Source: Federal Reserve Bank, ECB 4 J.P.Morgan EFTA_R1_020

FX is ELMI+ in $. 16 2.0% Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 S&P 500 Sector Performance Utilities 14.8% Consumer Staples 10.5% Health Care 10.2% Consumer Discretionary 4.4% Energy 2.8% Information Technology 1.3% Telecommunication Services 0.8% S&P 500 0.0% Industrials -2.9%

mberg European equities: switch to outright long Healthcare We switch our European sector pair trade preferr

0.5 0% 50 -1.0 0 15 e% 0 , # of meetings into tightening cycle -2.0 4% Q2-2013 Q1-2014. Q4-2014 = Q3-2015 — Q2-2016 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis Nevertheless it is not our central scenario in part because there is a risk that much of a Trump surge could be bad for growth. As we noted above th

tax of overseas earnings of US firms’ subsidiaries at reduced rates. Non-Financials in the S&P hold at least $1.2tn in overseas cash (mostly Tech and Health Care). If half was used for buybacks, this could add 3% ($4) to S&P 500 EPS. A redux of 2004 where companies used 80% of cash for buybacks may be less lik

eduction could be claimed in the tax year beginning before or after the passage date in Oct. 2004. Approximately $300bn was repatriated, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)’s U.S. International Transactions Accounts Data, vs. an average of S60bn over the prior five years. The IRS estimates’ that 843 US companies to