Epstein Secrets

k, commodity prices low, and investment depressed. This together with a disorderly fiscal adjustment in Brazil and tighter economic restrictions in Venezuela and Argentina finally pushed the regional economy into recession in 2015. Further adjustment is likely to maintain negative growth in 2016, and a

ted real bond yield, inverted (rhs) -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Datastream, Bloomberg Finance LP Figure 2: We expect 14% EPS growth in the Euro area in 2016, driven by a cyclical rebound in earnings Euro area EPS growth U

isis highs. % 700 639 600 500 + 400 300 + 1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 Data through 03 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream. The anemic (but steady) pace of this recovery has fueled a debate about its causes. The theories fall into six categories: e A “hangover” from the

hina, South Africa and Brazil—have negative outlooks from at least two rating agencies, raising the potential for downgrades.! A potential default by Venezuela and its national oil company could also sour sentiment, as could unfavorable tariffs or trade restrictions from the new US administration. Finally, t

Meeting 12 m November 2016 Agreed Cut 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 ran raq Libya UAE Total Algeria Angola Ecuador Kuwait Nigeria Qatar Saudi Venezuela Data as of November 30, 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, OPEC. Exhibit 97: US Energy Sector Ratio of Capital Spending (Capex) to

ive years, namely Iran the UAE Global oil consumption BofAML OPEC capacjty growth, 2015-2020F 105 Kuwait mn bpd fcast uwail 100 , Algeria 95 Qatar 90 Venezuela Angola 85 3 Ecuador 80 Nigeria 15 UAE 70 Libya 65 Iran Saudi Arabia 60 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 05 Source

Saudi 12m Fwd PE 27 EM 12m Fwd PE 25 Average 23 eoccccce Average 2.1 1.9 nhs 1.5 1.3 14 09 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0 10 (12181 8H Source: DataStream, |/B/E/S, Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Source: DataStream, |/B/E/S, Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Research Interestingly, no