Epstein Secrets

Netherlands France Austria EFTA01464497 Hungary Portugal Italy Ireland Spain Greece China Indonesia Thailand Brazil Taiwan Malaysia Philippines Hong Kong India Singapore EFTA01464498 28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Figure 17: BoJ Balance Sheet Yet To Grow As Fast As Fed Or

igure 1: The basic balance has turned positive... Figure 2: ...as current account surplus outweigh the net FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Figure 3: EUR/USD strongly correlated (0.88) with bilateral basic balance with the US Figure 4: Bilateral bas

nd Turkey and later in the year in Israel, but continuing to come down in Russia. In Asia, in sharp contrast to past Fed cycles, we expect only the Philippines will see rate hikes in 2016. Instead, we expect central banks in China, India, Indonesia and Taiwan to cut rates. By implication, interest rate di

3.0 3.5 4.0 2012 2013 PCE deflator Compensation per employee Employment Real total compensation 2014 2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Eurostat 2016 2017 Figure 3: Investment spending recovery has flattened EA non-construction investment spending (lhs) German mfg orders from EA ex heavy

the same as the last couple of years. There may be further slowing of China, but India and Indonesia could see growth accelerate, Malaysia and the Philippines could maintain trend growth, and the rest of Asia could see less disappointment. Indeed, our forecast for the next two years assumes such a path. W

long term real rates Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg EFTA01476084 Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, BEA, CAO Similarly, the output gap has mirrored the dynamics of credit, as the unemployment rate peaked mid-2013 in the euro area vs. late 2009 i