Epstein Secrets

ew poor or poorer countries that remained in the world trading system; countries such as Japan, Italy, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia, saw breakneck growth, moving from subsistence agriculture to industrialisation in a generation. In the West full employment artificially increased

tment booms and financial crises initiated by capital investment typically from London or New York; a process documented beautifully by Reinhart and Rogoff in 'This Time is Different' [Reinhart & Rogoff 2009]. One aside with regard to the use of the word capital, which in international economics is use

Deficit 2009 ment Rate YIY (pps) Tunisia Ethiopia Colombia Cyprus Poland Spain Kenya Norway Ghana Bolivia Sweden Brazil Switzerland Latvia Malawi Malaysia Denmark Gabon Finland Turkey Czech Republic Slovenia Slovakia Croatia Australia 3 BS fe coocooecees Ce eee eC HFN OC HB ON | OO f& 68 47 43 45 46

cent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. . We note that while Reinhart and Rogoff's observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer to the European countries’ definition of government gr

ment Strategy Group, Datastream, Global Financial Data. * We define “severe” recessions according to those identified by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in “Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes” (2014), as well as the 1937 recession (a continuation of the 1929 recession) and the

urce: Investment Strategy Group, Emerging Advisors Group, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. both China and the US, such as Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia, would be particularly vulnerable. While the net effect of these competing forces is positive in our base case, the risks are tilted to the downside