Epstein Secrets

n. As within DM, we see a lot of divergences within EM and prefer to focus on under-owned markets with good domestic demand story such as Mexico and Malaysia. On the contrary we underweight export oriented countries in Asia such as Korea and Taiwan. Credit • Spread moves were mixed this week, as local t

l of other major central banks. Today's disappointing US employment report may put that shift on ice, removing what had been a building headwind for Treasuries. Equities • Global equities are down on the week due to weaker than expected US activity indicators. The MSCI AC World index is down almost 3% fro

be artificially suppressed by controls. When looking at 16 countries with severe capital controls based on IMF indicators (Algeria, Angola, China, Malaysia, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire. India. Morocco, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Swaziland. Tanzania, Togo, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan), we find that bitcoin

ore 2011 Sitcom's Is also uncorrelated to Treasury securities or the VIX Lastly, we test the correlation of bitcoin to other liquid markets such as Treasuries and the VIX and our own BofA Merrill Lynch GFSIIU. Once more, the correlation between bitcoin and both near-term and long-term Treasury bonds and b

d by DSI. Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan. Malaysia: Deutsche Bank AG and/or its affiliate(s) may maintain positions in the securities referred to herein and may from time to time offer those securit

nce on reinvestment policy* and interplay between rates and reinvestments Note: (*) Currently, the Fed reinvests its maturing holdings of MBS and Treasuries purchased during QE. Research Deutsche Bank [email protected] http://houseview.research.db.com TheHouseView Special — 9 December 2015 7

orecasts Facts & Figures Glossary Glossary The Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of England. Bank Negara Malaysia is the central bar* of Malaysia. Brexit is a combination of the words "Britain" and "Exit" and describes the possible exit of the United Kingdom of the European Union. EUR is the

Australia. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the central bank of New Zealand. Soft data's data than relies on human opinions and interpretations. Treasuries are bonds issued by the U.S. government. USD is the currency code for the U.S. Dollar. Valuation attempts to quantify the attractNeness of an asset

land Romania Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates Asia (ex-Japan) China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka EFTA01476183 Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezu

has also been historically correlated with the US current account deficit as much of it was financed by the foreign official sector, which bought Treasuries for Official Reserves. The present current account deficit points to 25% of the lOy yield, so similar (55bps) but slightly higher BRP. Credit sprea

Deficit 2009 ment Rate YIY (pps) Tunisia Ethiopia Colombia Cyprus Poland Spain Kenya Norway Ghana Bolivia Sweden Brazil Switzerland Latvia Malawi Malaysia Denmark Gabon Finland Turkey Czech Republic Slovenia Slovakia Croatia Australia 3 BS fe coocooecees Ce eee eC HFN OC HB ON | OO f& 68 47 43 45 46

r than Treasury yields with corresponding maturities as they include incremental credit risk associated with the banks that provide swaps compared to Treasuries, which are viewed as risk-free. 2)10-year Treasury swap spread turned negative on 3/24/10, while 30-year Treasury swap spread turned negative in 10/0

urce: Investment Strategy Group, Emerging Advisors Group, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. both China and the US, such as Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia, would be particularly vulnerable. While the net effect of these competing forces is positive in our base case, the risks are tilted to the downside

e income. In the sections that follow, we review the specifics of each fixed income market. US Treasuries While 2016 began as a bumper year for US Treasuries, it ended in a rout. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, for example, reached an all-time low of just 1.36% by the middle of last year before joltin

ents to rotate without too much disruption. We would expect China’s inclusion to account for 10% of the JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified index. Turkey, Malaysia, S. Africa, and Thailand would lose the largest shares in the index, while the shares of Brazil, Mexico, Poland and Indonesia are expected to remain

nks hold a 10% capital ratio. This plan would probably decrease the availability of leverage, and could also result in reduced demand for short-dated Treasuries in HQLA portfolios. Another risk to 30y swap spread normalization in particular would be a material increase in deficit spending as part of a fiscal