00 600 800 1000 1200 0 2011 2012 2013 Base case 2014 2015E 2016E Risk case Note: *Mkt cap weighted BHPB, Rio, Barrick, Freeport, Alcoa, Norilsk, Alcoa, Glencore, Southern Copper, Anglo American and Vale Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Company reports, Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloom