and used to balance out movements in TRY, yet not any more since the Fed taper tantrum 170 160 -I 150 140 130 120 -I 110 -I 100 90 Jan 11 USDbn Resident FX deposits -Basket/TRY (rhs) Source Haver Anal/tics, CBT. and Deutsche Bank Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Basket/TRY 3.4 3.2 3.0 2

Deutsche Bank El MO-9. CBT's FX reserves are shrinking... 150 USDbn USDbn 150 125 125 • • • • • - - - - - - - - • 00- • 100 • 100 0 ... On. ... • .0 i *to. 75 75 50 50 25 ea et. re e 25 0 0 Oct 11

Deutsche Bank MO-10. due to ongoing sales to BOTAS and markets and there is no quick fix 3 2 1 0 1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 USDbn Feb 15 Jul 15 Jun 13 USDbn Nov 13 Apr 14 Sep 14 Contribution by X credits (Ihs) IFX sales to BOTAS (lhs) FX sales to market (auction & inte

Bank Ti rkiye - History and forecasts 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F National Income Nominal GDP (USDbn) 392.2 482.7 529.3 646.4 730.6 614.4 731.5 774.7 788.6 823.0 795.9 692.0 653.7 Population (mn) 67.7 68.6 69.4 70.2 71.1 72.1 73.

Bull Bear Source: Datastream, Deutsche Bank Research Bull Twist Flatten Steepen Steepen Steepen Figure 7: Bond net flows -12m rolling sum (in USDbn) United States Euro Area 200 400 600 800 -600 -400 -200 0 Sep-2013 Apr-2014 Nov-2014 Source: Datastream, Deutsche Bank Research Jun-20