t the risk of a euro exit over the next six months has diminished after the 17 June elections, which have produced a viable government coalition. The Troika may only accept moderate adjustments to the second Greek package. Portugal is likely to receive an increased bailout package and is unlikely to defau

ainst the ECB program and further support; a Portuguese default; a Greek euro exit before the end of 2012; or a major external shock. Key dates TBD Troika report on Greece 8 Nov ECB press conference 12 Nov Eurogroup meeting 15 Nov Eurozone GDP 3Q: first estimate 22 Nov Eurozone composite purchasing