ly, but they cannot be ruled out at some levels of conflict and in some scenarios, such as those that posit a need to open and secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. In general, the more expansive a war’s goals as a plan escalates from strike to campaign to broad offensive, the greater the force

Brent 6-month target: USD 140-180/bbl e Iranian oil exports gets subject to a complete embargo, or military interventions affect crude oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz. Alternative OPEC supply routs would not be in a position to compensate for such a supply shortfall. In order to curb demand, prices would need to sp

roduction Per Country and Export Flows Arabia ; (85%) (9.8) Others 15%) = A third of world’s LNG and a fifth of global oil production goes through the Strait of Hormuz. = “Tran relies on the Strait not only for its oil exports, but also for the imports of some needed food and medical products.” ! (1) Michael Ratne

Any complicity by Sunni countries in conjunction with US action (airspace, attack plans and logistics, etc.) might be seen as acts of war by Iran. ** The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world's oil (17 million bpd). There are active and de-activated pipelines in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE that could divert arou

wn, leaving 290 dead. Adam Taylor reports: "On July 3, 1988, Iran Air Flight 655 was shot down by the U.S. military. The flight ... was flying over the Strait of Hormuz toward its destination, Dubai, when it was hit by two surface-to-air missiles. Though Pentagon officials at first denied any knowledge of the incid

, Gambrell) reports Iran's Revolutionary Guard "launched underground ballistic missiles as part of an exercise involving a fake aircraft carrier in the Strait of Hormuz, state television reported Wednesday." The TV "did not immediately air footage of the launches," nor did it identify the missiles used in the drill.

that Iran "soon plans to use it for live-fire drills." While "Iranian state media and officials have yet to acknowledge bringing the replica out to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes," its "appearance there suggests Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard is preparing an encore of a si

-carrier-strike-group-to- iranian-coast/> (9/22, 78K) reports US Navy officials have "announced the deployment of a powerful carrier strike group to the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to protect freedom of navigation and remind Iran of America's naval presence." The deployment consists of aircraft carrier USS Nimitz,

ait Of Hormuz. Reuters (7/25, Macaskill, Saul) reports that Britain has "started sending a warship to accompany all British- flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a change in policy announced on Thursday after the government previously said it did not have resources to do so." Reuters points out that "tensio

administration takes office." Bloomberg (1/5, Motevalli, 3.57M) reports that South Korea "ordered its naval destroyer ROKS Choi Young to waters near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday." Treasury Sanctions Chinese Firm Tied Iran's Steel Industry. Reuters (1/5) reports that on Tuesday, the US "blacklisted a Chinese compa

it Of Hormuz. The Washington Free Beacon (9/22, 78K) reports US Navy officials have "announced the deployment of a powerful carrier strike group to the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to protect freedom of navigation and remind Iran of America's naval presence." The deployment consists of aircraft carrier USS Nimitz,

t, Gambrell) reports Iran's Revolutionary Guard "launched underground ballistic missiles as part of an exercise involving a fake aircraft carrier in the Strait of Hormuz, state television reported Wednesday." The TV "did not immediately air footage of the launches," nor did it identify the missiles used in the drill

ansatlantic relationship. What I've been reading 1. A Royal Navy frigate intervened to block three Iranian gunboats headed for a British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz this week. One-third of seaborne crude passes through the strait, which has become a focal point for tensions between Iran and the west, threatenin

f upbeat mood that's been created over the last couple of days? Back in January and February, we had sharp warnings back and forth, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz. The tone has certainly changed, in part because the Iranians understand that the harsh tone was not serving them well. Second of all, two factors

there is no question that the current crisis bears EFTA00630304 heavily on global oil supply prospects, both through Iran's threats [37] to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for forthcoming sanctions on Iranian oil exports and the likelihood that any air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities will lead to

en the European Union announced its own sanctions of the Iranian central bank in late January, Iran redoubled its threat to block shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Panetta called this another "red line" that would provoke a military response from the U.S. February brought more posturing from Iran, along with

third deterrent is the critical factor. Iran has for decades cultivated the ability to essentially conduct guerrilla warfare in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. This is Iran's real "nuclear" option. There are inherent vulnerabilities in such tight waters, in which Iran can bring to bear not just naval mine

gion. This is in direct contradiction with the United States' broad interest in the Middle East, which is stability. - Iran may not be able to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely, but even threats and potential attempts will cause volatility in the Persian Gulf. Some point to recent history and argue that

They went behind my back, goddammit. CJCS: Yes, sir. POTUS: Why the hell should I lift a finger to help them? CJCS: Because if the Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz, we will see oil above $200 a barrel. POTUS [after a pause]: Just a moment. [Whispers] How am I doing in Florida? David Axelrod [also whispering]

her with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, has stockpiled oil in ships off the coast of Al- Fujairah, outside the critical shipping chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, and added emergency crude oil stocks in China, Japan, South Korea, and Rotterdam. This coordination helped keep oil prices from spiking when West