ly, but they cannot be ruled out at some levels of conflict and in some scenarios, such as those that posit a need to open and secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. In general, the more expansive a war’s goals as a plan escalates from strike to campaign to broad offensive, the greater the force

Brent 6-month target: USD 140-180/bbl e Iranian oil exports gets subject to a complete embargo, or military interventions affect crude oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz. Alternative OPEC supply routs would not be in a position to compensate for such a supply shortfall. In order to curb demand, prices would need to sp

roduction Per Country and Export Flows Arabia ; (85%) (9.8) Others 15%) = A third of world’s LNG and a fifth of global oil production goes through the Strait of Hormuz. = “Tran relies on the Strait not only for its oil exports, but also for the imports of some needed food and medical products.” ! (1) Michael Ratne