ly, but they cannot be ruled out at some levels of conflict and in some scenarios, such as those that posit a need to open and secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. In general, the more expansive a war’s goals as a plan escalates from strike to campaign to broad offensive, the greater the force

Brent 6-month target: USD 140-180/bbl e Iranian oil exports gets subject to a complete embargo, or military interventions affect crude oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz. Alternative OPEC supply routs would not be in a position to compensate for such a supply shortfall. In order to curb demand, prices would need to sp

roduction Per Country and Export Flows Arabia ; (85%) (9.8) Others 15%) = A third of world’s LNG and a fifth of global oil production goes through the Strait of Hormuz. = “Tran relies on the Strait not only for its oil exports, but also for the imports of some needed food and medical products.” ! (1) Michael Ratne

Any complicity by Sunni countries in conjunction with US action (airspace, attack plans and logistics, etc.) might be seen as acts of war by Iran. ** The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world's oil (17 million bpd). There are active and de-activated pipelines in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE that could divert arou

wn, leaving 290 dead. Adam Taylor reports: "On July 3, 1988, Iran Air Flight 655 was shot down by the U.S. military. The flight ... was flying over the Strait of Hormuz toward its destination, Dubai, when it was hit by two surface-to-air missiles. Though Pentagon officials at first denied any knowledge of the incid