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t case. BTPs and the banks recaps remain a tail risks for the Italian economy, although the ECB extending QE should help. A big “No” vote would boost Five Star and undermine Renzi into 2018 elections, in our view. 4 December: Austrian presidential election Polls by public broadcaster ORF show the result as
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increases risks of a rate cut. The risk to this view is if tail risk scenarios unfold in European politics, such as an early election in Italy with Five Star winning, or Le Pen wining the second round in the French elections. Although we expect markets to be more concerned about European politics following
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Donald Trump
PersonPresident of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

United States
LocationCountry located primarily in North America
Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
OrganizationMerrill Lynch (Pierce, Fenner & Smith)

Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management
OrganizationInvestment management and financial planning service

Merrill Lynch
OrganizationAmerican investing and wealth management division of Bank of America
The Financial Service Board
OrganizationOrganization referenced in documents
Merrill Lynch International
OrganizationOrganization referenced in documents
Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited
OrganizationOrganization referenced in documents
Merrill Lynch Canada Inc
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the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada
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Merrill Lynch Mexico
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the Comisidn Nacional Bancaria y de Valores
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Merrill Lynch Argentina SA
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Comisién Nacional de Valores
OrganizationUruguayan football club based in Montevideo, Uruguay

the Financial Services Agency
OrganizationOrganization referenced in documents
Merrill Lynch International Incorporated
OrganizationOrganization referenced in documents
the Securities and Futures Bureau
OrganizationOrganization referenced in documents
DSP Merrill Lynch Limited
OrganizationOrganization referenced in documents
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan
OrganizationOrganization referenced in documents
the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
OrganizationOrganization referenced in documents