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t case. BTPs and the banks recaps remain a tail risks for the Italian economy, although the ECB extending QE should help. A big “No” vote would boost Five Star and undermine Renzi into 2018 elections, in our view. 4 December: Austrian presidential election Polls by public broadcaster ORF show the result as
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increases risks of a rate cut. The risk to this view is if tail risk scenarios unfold in European politics, such as an early election in Italy with Five Star winning, or Le Pen wining the second round in the French elections. Although we expect markets to be more concerned about European politics following
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United States
LocationCountry located primarily in North America
Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
Organization
Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management
OrganizationInvestment management and financial planning service

Merrill Lynch
OrganizationAmerican investing and wealth management division of Bank of America
The Financial Service Board
OrganizationMerrill Lynch International
OrganizationMerrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited
Organizationthe Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission
OrganizationMerrill Lynch Canada Inc
Organizationthe Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada
OrganizationMerrill Lynch Mexico
Organizationthe Comisidn Nacional Bancaria y de Valores
OrganizationMerrill Lynch Argentina SA
Organization
Comisién Nacional de Valores
OrganizationUruguayan football club based in Montevideo, Uruguay

the Financial Services Agency
OrganizationMerrill Lynch International Incorporated
Organizationthe Securities and Futures Bureau
OrganizationDSP Merrill Lynch Limited
Organizationthe Securities and Exchange Board of India
Organization
Donald Trump
PersonPresident of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)