There is increasing nervousness ahead of Sunday's referendum in Crimea. G7 leaders said they would not recognize the outcome of the referendum, while Russia has maintained that they were prepared to "mirror" any sanctions There were reports of Russian military "training exercises" along the border yesterday Key events to watch today: 1) Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secy of State John Kerry meet in London. This is a last-ditch effort to de-escalate the situation 2) Central Bank of Russia meeting today at 9:30 where Bloomberg survey expects no change Swaps curve is pricing in over a 100bp hike. How will the central bank react to FX pressures? Ongoing tensions justify a cautious approach into the weekend. Tactically go long 1m WTI Calls 101 ($1) and short DAX Russia 5 swa 1 • Last Price 9.3850 T High on 03/14/14 9.3850 4- Average 7.2356 1 Low on 08/08/13 6.8600 rt\ Mar Jun Sep 2013 RRSWMS Curncy (RUB SWAP VS M0SPRIME Copyright? 2014 Bloomberg Finance L.P. WTI Crude Oil future A • r14 10 C1.34 11 CIVV1. 9.0000 8.5000 8.0000 7.5000 7.0000 Dec tar 2014 5VR) Daily 14MAR2013-14MAR2014 14-Mar-2014 07:18:48 • CLJ4 COMB Comdty 98.17 T High on 03/09 22:00 102.82 -I- Average 99.70 .1 Low on 03/12 16:01 97.55 • Prey Close 102.58 12 Mar 2014 (WIT CRUDE FUTURE Apria) 5 Days Tick 13 14 103.00 102.00 101.00 100.00 99.00 Ccpyrigi 2014 1310amtersi Finance LP. 14-Plac-2014 07:20:45 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0 110807 SDNY_GM_00256991 EFTA01453283