Epstein Secrets

crucial French elections. A Bankof America Merrill Lynch European Equity Strategy | 01 December 2016 5 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014464 --- PAGE BREAK --- Marine Le Pen victory could bring into question both the future of the EU and also the euro, should the polls be close it could make the uncertainty and market mov

, PMI’s and consumer confidence pointing to a solid Q4 to follow. That quarter is currently tracking at 3.6% according to the Atlanta Fed. Chart 13: Eurozone PMI’s have picked up of late... Chart 14: US Consumer Confidence now at post-GFC highs 60.0 120 100 59.0 80 50.0 60 40 45.0 ———US Consumer Confidence

n for investors as we enter a busy year for European politics (see table opposite} is whether the populism train will gather pace or terminate at the Eurozone. Italy risks elevated, but risks two way and banks the bigger issue Although Italy goes to the polls this year, it is worthwhile starting with this

erica 16 European Equity Strategy | 01 December 2016 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014475 --- PAGE BREAK --- Barty argued in The Trump Inflection, Le Pen’s victory has the potential to be even more of an earthquake for the world’s financial markets. Indeed, we have already seen a 1vol move in April 2017

10 Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 Bankof America 2 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014441 --- PAGE BREAK --- Chart 15: Eurozone PMI's point to solid growth Chart 16: Japanese growth expected to accelerate in 2017 60.0 3.0 58.0 —_.,. = 2.0 Forecasts 56.0 54.0 1.0 52.0 50.0 0.0

urope, especially France and Germany. Because of the winner takes all system in France we find investors are more concerned with the situation there. Marine Le Pen and the Front National look likely to make it to the second round of voting (again according to polls) and until the vote comes in we suspect investo

to the second round of voting (again according to polls) and until the vote comes in we suspect investors will be cautious about European markets. A Le Pen victory could likely bring the future of the EU and the Euro into question as she has talked about France withdrawing from both. That in turn has arg

d long RUB/ZAR. The former has dropped as the EUR has weakened against the USD. We continue to think that the Swedish economy is more robust than the Eurozone and that the Riksbank will sooner or later have to adjust monetary policy accordingly. We see a lot more room for this pair to move in 2017, particul

k 26 Pace of Federal Reserve Tightening 27 Low Expectations of a US Recession 28 29 30 30 31 33 Rising Influence of Populist Parties in the Eurozone Geopolitical Hot Spots Get Hotter Terrorism Escalates Cyberattacks Continue China Submerges Under Its Debt Burden and Capital Outflows US-China Re

wth of 4.6%, aided by healthy domestic growth, and a particularly well-capitalized® banking sector that has a lower nonperforming loan ratio than the Eurozone bank average. Furthermore, Spain is unlikely to face the same political uncertainty as Germany, France and Italy in 2017. We expect high single-digit

ak away from the European Union? In France, for example, upcoming elections in May 2017 are likely to pit Francois Fillon of Les Républicains against Marine Le Pen of the far right Front National. Le Pen has promised a referendum on whether France should stay in the European Union, and, should she win, questions

example, upcoming elections in May 2017 are likely to pit Francois Fillon of Les Républicains against Marine Le Pen of the far right Front National. Le Pen has promised a referendum on whether France should stay in the European Union, and, should she win, questions about the viability of the Eurozone wil

ad | 16 November 2016 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014735 --- PAGE BREAK --- target. It is possible that Trump’s election could weaken fiscal discipline in the Eurozone over the medium term, but we are more concerned by the non-trivial risk that the ECB may disappoint in the December meeting by either not extending q

rate cut. The risk to this view is if tail risk scenarios unfold in European politics, such as an early election in Italy with Five Star winning, or Le Pen wining the second round in the French elections. Although we expect markets to be more concerned about European politics following the US elections,

ut it earlier if Renzi loses the referendum. The 2017 French election is another concern. President of the far-right party and presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is ahead in the polls to win the first round. Winning the second round is much more difficult, as she will need more than 50% of the votes, but inves