Epstein Secrets

Settlements BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics BOE: Bank of England BOJ: Bank of Japan CAGR: compound annual growth

” Second, to what extent will the rise of populism influence policies in the Eurozone? Here, Germany will probably provide a litmus test. Chancellor Angela Merkel and her coalition government are likely to respond to recent terrorist attacks there by proposing a stronger police and military presence, according

rorist suspects have already been arrested among them.°* With German elections scheduled for September 2017, it remains to be seen whether Chancellor Merkel will adjust her immigration policy. 28 | Goldman Sachs | JANUARY 2017 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014561 --- PAGE BREAK --- While populism is on the rise and

for September 2017, it remains to be seen whether Chancellor Merkel will adjust her immigration policy. 28 | Goldman

and the resulting consensus view that the UK was destined for recession. Although the 20% decline in the trade-weighted sterling and rapid easing by the Bank of England were no doubt pivotal in avoiding that fate, the immediate impact of the Brexit referendum has been far less destructive than feared. But as we begi

Accountability & Reflection As the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney said in 2015, the “crisis and its af

(NNSA EE—>—E>E—E>E—E—E 10-14 aaa 5-9 Sa 0-4 eee 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% right camps. So far, Macron has fostered a good rapport with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whom we expect to be re- elected in September. The political risk in continental Europe is now centered in Italy, but we were encouraged that its fa

ered a good rapport with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whom we expect to be re- elected in September. T

ancial markets. Our central case is that centre right President is elected in France (with Francois Fillon now the official Republican candidate) and Merkel is returned at the head of a coalition government in Germany. Chart 19: German polls show a consistent lead for Merkel’s CDU party Chart 20: Fillon

& Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg The other fixed income trade we continue to like is short 5Y UK real rates. The market continues to discount the Bank of England consistently overshooting its inflation target without a response on monetary policy. Yet Governor Carney and other members of the BOE’s MPC have sai