Epstein Secrets

ycles since the turn of the century the bank has at some point reduced rates by more than 25bps) and/or a more prolonged easing cycle. Elsewhere, South Africa's SARB seems to be warming to the idea of rate cuts despite a relatively weak ZAR. Governor Marcus recently emphasized the importance of a free-floa

atter cumulative fportfolio lows, bn Sfr -900 -700 -500 -300 -100 100 99 inflows outflows 250bn u/weight 02 05 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP 08 11 Swiss Franc Is Last "Safe Haven" To Turn 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 Source: Deutsche Ban

ecasts 12.9 13.0 13.2 2.00 2.03 2.08 Russia Turkey 3M 6M 12M Poland Zloty/US$ (Fwd. Rates) Ruble/US$ (Fwd. Rates) Lira/US$ (Fwd. Rates) South Africa Rand/US$ (Fwd. Rates) Forint/Euro 296 280 280 280 EFTA01464482 (Fwd. Rates) 25.6 25.6 25.6 19.6 19.2 19.6 19.8 19.6 19.6 19.5 299 302 306 226 21

87 1.22 1.25 1.25 1.25 - 1.22 1.22 1.22 7.48 7.30 7.20 7.10 - 7.51 7.54 7.61 8.45 8.20 8.10 8.00 - 8.47 8.49 8.54 Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Hungary Indonesia IDR/USD 9,686 9,950 9,900 9,850 (Fwd. Rates) Malaysia MYR/USD 3.10 3.07 3.05 3.02 (Fwd. Rates) 3.12 3.13 3.16

m the tailwinds provided by further ECB easing. Figure 19: EMEA: two very different inflation stories % yoy 10 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2014 Russia, South Africa, & Turkey CEE & Israel Inflation* 2015 * simple averages Source: Deutsche Bank Research 2016 2017 Figure 20: CEE: growth set to remain rob

Rising means easier, falling means tighter # of standard deviations 20140101 20140618 20141203 20150520 20151104 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics LP Figure 7: Bottom-up fiscal stance estimates underestimating extent of fiscal easing in 2016 1.5 0.5 1 -0.5 0 -1.5 -1