Epstein Secrets

n 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short term bull flattening in Mexico, and we keep paying ly IBR in Colombia and receive 2y Camara in Chile. We stay neutral on most LatAm FX as valuations are not attractive. We like to short MXN at current levels. Positioning is crowded and we expect th

balances point to deficits of 210 kbd in 2017 and 90 kbd in 2018. We lower our WTI forecasts to average $47 this year and $50.bbl next year. We cut Brent to $50 this year and $52bbl in 2018. We now beleve oil stays in contango by yearend. but see a WTI forward anchor al $45.50 and S5 backwardation by

ntina 2.9 -1.5 3.0 4.8 42 4:S .4.6 -1.4 4.0 10.7 34.0 40.0 45.0 Brazil 2.5 1.1 1.8 1.8 0.7 Q,2 1.8 2.7 22 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.3 Chile 4.1 2.5 3.5 -0.4 3.0 21 4.0 2.8 3.2 2.5 4.5 4.2 4 3.0 Colombia 4.7 5.0 45 31 9.7 21 4.0 4.0 5.0 1.8 2.8 3.2 3.0 Ecuador

ll as weaker supply growth, largely in Iraq and Libya. • Recent reports of a peace agreement in Libya between the rebels and the government caused Brent to fall by around 5%. We think a quick and full recovery in production is unlikely and we also think overall production capacity is now lower due t

f the 8.7 mMT C=inese copper consumption. Chinese smelters have signed the first ter= deal of 2015 to buy- 300kMT of blended copper concentrate from Chile's Codelco after buying the new blend o= the spot to trial it last year. The Spot Treatment and Refining Cha=ges that the smelters receive for the co

n; Ariane Dwyer; FW: EOD Commodities Note - 1 ar Prateek Jain Sent: Tuesday, March 10, 2015 4:57 PM Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 10 Mar OIL Brent continued its downward momentum today as USD s=rength added to the physical market weakness in the NSea.. Iraq exports we=e higher for first week of

9 2.7 3.6 .3.7 1 2.51 lag 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 9.9 10.0 10.0 11.0 Brawl 2.7 1.0 3.4 1.0 2.4 31 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.8 5.0 5.6 6.0 5.5 Chile 6.0 5.5 4.6 8.3 5.7 2.2 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.6 3.1 2.7 2.2 3.1 Colom0ia 5.9 3.2 1 4.0 1 5.3 -2.6 3.7 1 42 6.1 t 6.1 t 5.3 t 3.4 2

make the largest gain with close to 14%, closely followed by base metals and precious metals with 12% and 9% respectively. Our oil strategists see Brent at $120/bbl by year end, driven by higher demand as the global economy should improve sequentially towards the end of 2013. Agriculture prices are

are expected to remain weak through much of 2016. Changes to commodity prices in the last three years have greatly harmed countries like Venezuela, Chile, Colombia and Peru, with accumulated income loses since 2012 of 8.0% of GDP, 4.5%, 4.0%, and 2.3%, respectively. Weaker economies have also exace

hen modelled OPEC production of 32.4 mmb/d matches our calculated call on OPEC (i.e., the volume required from OPEC It o balance demand). Oil at a Brent price of USD45/bbl is below the 2016 national budget breakeven level for all of the ten countries assessed by our EMEA macro team, and also below t

N AMERICA 37 Brazil — cheap but fundamentals continue to deteriorate 37 Mexico — expensive but still better than the alternatives 39 Chile — continued breakdown of the neo-liberal EFTA01466398 model 41 CEEMEA 42 South Africa — cheap currency but expensive equities Russia —

re 70). Turkey along with India has the highest sensitivity to lower oil prices of any of the global equity markets in our view (Figure 71), so if Brent does finally move to a lower level in 2014, that would provide additional justification to overweight the market. Political factors have clearly e