Epstein Secrets

n 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short term bull flattening in Mexico, and we keep paying ly IBR in Colombia and receive 2y Camara in Chile. We stay neutral on most LatAm FX as valuations are not attractive. We like to short MXN at current levels. Positioning is crowded and we expect th

k off scenarios. As our Sentiment Survey shows, geopolitical risks are still one of the main risks for investors (Chart 24). What we like in EM In LatAm, we still like receiving rates in the belly of the Brazilian curve (Jan 21) and we closed Jan 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short te

e Chile BCH US 92 4 46 Credit° Real CREAL' MM 1.8 Brazil BOVESPA -0.8 30.0 GOL S.A. GOL US 22.4 3.8 MercadoUbre MELI US 281.9 -2.9 Chile IPSA 02 36.6 LATAM Airlines Group S A. LTM US 14.4 2.9 Chedraui CHDRAUIB MM 21 -2.7 Colombia IGBC -0.9 12.8 Santander Chile BSAC US

ier Avila Joshua Shoshan Subject: / I DB Morning Overview Classification: Public Paul — we send this morning piece below to a list of our mainly LatAm clients every morning. Would you like to be on this? Martin Classification: Public DB the WORLD - DB Reid - This week has been, and still is, al

ater. This time, we expect a sharp selloff with an eventual recovery. Our bearish view on LatAm credits in particular is driven by 1) positioning in LatAm is heavier than in EMEA or Asia — watch outflows from IG crossover investors who will rethink their EM IG investments; 2) their exposure to commoditi

the above mentioned global factors, for the last two years and the years 2013-2014 for the sake of comparison (Chart 64). We find that currencies in LatAm and EEMEA are more exposed to global factors than in Asia. Interestingly, LatAm and EMEA currencies are more sensitive to shocks in commodity prices

f a disorderly depreciation, as it has been already the case in the last few days with small interventions in the forward market. On the other hand, Chile’s growth remains anemic and the economy is expected to continue growing sub 2% in 2017 (Chart 71). The CLP is overvalued but recent flows Chart 70:

ternationally given commodity interlinkages. o European and Asian utilities offer the most abundant and attractive alpha opportunities. o Japan and Latam will be more trading markets over the near term. e Some structural changes will have a global impact (Section 4). o The shale gas and coal price wa

White Paper CONFIDENTIAL e §=Latam Utilities Latin America will be a trading market for the next year or two. These markets, with the exception of Chile, are subject to significant government intervention, which follows long cycles; Brazil is early in the interventionist cycle (e.g., Brazilian Preside