Epstein Secrets

ith problems in Greece, Portugal and Ireland, if you include Spain, it gets tight (note: the chart excludes costs to recapitalize banks). If Italy or Belgium entered Europe’s Liquidity Hospital, a lot more money might be needed from European parliaments (in one worst-case scenario, Alliance Bernstein estim

ncipal. Bonds exchanged at par will carry low coupons (4.25% effective), while bonds with higher coupons will be exchanged at a 20% discount Source: Eurozone draft proposal July 21, 2011, IF press release July 21, 2011 In addition to execution risk in Greece, we are left with 3 other concerns. The current

ith problems in Greece, Portugal and Ireland, if you include Spain, it gets tight (note: the chart excludes costs to recapitalize banks). If Italy or Belgium entered Europe’s Liquidity Hospital, a lot more money might be needed from European parliaments Limited capacity at the European Liquidity Hospital

incipal. Bonds exchanged at par will carry low coupons (4.25% effective), while bonds with higher coupons will be exchanged at a 20% discount Source: Eurozone draft proposal July 21, 2011, IIF press release July 21, 2011 In addition to execution risk in Greece, we are left with 3 other concerns. First, whi

e assumption is that the Eurozone as a whole will converge to a NIIP of around 50%. the level currently seen in its core group of creditor nations---Belgium. Germany and the Netherlands. The most data-driven approach is to pool all stock-flow observations for the G10 space ex-Sweden over the past twent

ral rise in saving preferences post-crisis, we argue that Europeans now have to become net creditors to the rest of the world. • We find that the Eurozone's NIIP needs to rise from -10% of GDP to at least 30% for Europe's current account surplus to become sustainable. We estimate that this adjustment

ted equities also must be listed in only the following countries: Australia. Hong Kong, Japan. South Korea, Brazil, Canada, United States, Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom. Once the

A_R1_02032430 EFTA02691084 ATorus, LLC Backtest & Trading Assumptions Size of Portfolio/No. of Positions: The global macro book includes all G20, Eurozone (original member states), and BRIO equity index futures and credit indices, where available. We've removed Saudi Arabia and replaced with New Zeala

r investment busi- ness activities in Bahrain. Therefore, Clients have no protection under local banking and investment services laws and regulations Belgium: This publication is not intended to constitute a public offering or a comparable soticitation under Began law, but might be made available for info

terity has been more contractionary than many had expected. A huge gap in competitiveness between the core and the periphery is at the root of the Eurozone's problems. Ger- man labor costs rose by +18% in 2000-2009, significantly less than Italy's +35% and Spain's +50%. Our estimates suggest that Italy

rs failed to reach unanimous agreement on the original proposal, it was decided that progress would be made through a limited group of 1 Austria, Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain 2 A number of Eurozone states, including France and Italy, have alrea

ies from the IMF we calculate that German exports could be reduced by as much as EUR 3.3bn per year. In recent years, German exports to outside the Eurozone have grown as the economy has responded to weak demand in the single currency area. Germany's relatively strong growth compared the rest of the Eur

The same is true of the many smaller countries around Germany, not only does this include euro users such as Austria, Finland, the Netherlands and Belgium, it also includes others such as the Czech Republic, Denmark, Sweden and the Baltic states. Together, these countries form a linked bloc, with all

tem in 1992, or the collapse of Japan into deflation in the early 1990's. At the time of writing it is clear that the central banks of the USA, the Eurozone, Japan, the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and others are all following their own significantly different policies, based primarily on experience and intu

important contributor to US GDP growth. Growth has also begun to pick up in key areas of the emerging markets, including China and Brazil. While the Eurozone economy remains weak, we expect Q3 2012 to mark the bottom, and that growth will begin to get "less bad" from Q4 2012. Equities Equity markets have

continue to tap the primary market if they ask for a support program? ¢ How much more support will Greece receive and will it be able to stay in the Eurozone next year? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Austerity and weak growth ¢ We think the Eurozone economy troughed in 3Q. We expect flattish growth in 4Q 20

or investment business activities in Bahrain. Therefore, Clients have no protection under local banking and investment services laws and regulations. Belgium: This publication is not intended to constitute a public offering or a comparable solicitation under Belgian law, but might be made available for inf

ad | 16 November 2016 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014735 --- PAGE BREAK --- target. It is possible that Trump’s election could weaken fiscal discipline in the Eurozone over the medium term, but we are more concerned by the non-trivial risk that the ECB may disappoint in the December meeting by either not extending q

country. In fact, the country clustering is even more concentrated than it looks if we allow for the fact that the bigger of the two upside outliers, Belgium (1.8% inflation), has experienced a presumably unrepeatable increase in the tax rate on electricity from 6% to 21%, as well as other excise duty incr

36 UBS Economy The successful formation of a Greek government after the June 17 elections has reduced the risk of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone. However, the Euro debt crisis persists, and further reform and consolidation efforts in Spain and Italy are needed. In the US, economic data weakene

is general information only and does not take into account any person’s investment objectives, financial and taxation situation or particular needs. Belgium: This publication is not intended to constitute a public offering or a comparable solicitation under Belgian law, but might be made available for inf