Epstein Secrets

n EUR/CLP is an attractive alternative to position for loose monetary policies at the core (current: 618, entry: 616, target: 682, stop: 626). In Colombia, policymakers under-delivered in terms of FX market intervention after signaling that the currency was unacceptably expensive. Nevertheless, some n

12 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 NZD/CAD Model - uses Dairy Futures, NatGas, Crude, CRB, rate differential, USD TWI, VIX Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9 EFTA01464441 16 May 2813 FX Blueprint: Dashing Buck While both crosses have now fallen a long way relativ

ia Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka EFTA01476183 Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela G7 Advanced economies EM economies Global 2015F 2.4 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 3.2 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.1 1.5 5.2

rg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Index USDTWI PPP Implied 20% Band 100 110 120 130 60 70 80 90 Figure 7: Dollar leads productivity USD TWI (dev from PPP implied, 12q lead, lhs) US Nonfarm Productivity (dev from trend) (rhs) 10 20 30 40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Correl (since 1982): 51%

(Fwd. Rates) Hungary EUR/HUF Latin America Currency Argentina USD/ARS (Fwd. Rates) Brazil USD/BRL (Fwd. Rates) Chile USD/CLP (Fwd. Rates) Colombia USD/COP (Fwd. Rates) Spot 3M 6M 12M 5.49 5.60 5.98 6.62 - 4.63 4.87 5.33 2.26 2.12 2.15 2.17 - 2.31 2.35 2.44 509 505 502 500 - 516 521 531

r has fallen substantially Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Figure 11: No clear relationship between USD TWI and UST purchases Figure 12: Net equity flows turn positive Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Page 2