Epstein Secrets

n curve (Jan 21) and we closed Jan 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short term bull flattening in Mexico, and we keep paying ly IBR in Colombia and receive 2y Camara in Chile. We stay neutral on most LatAm FX as valuations are not attractive. We like to short MXN at current levels. Position

balances point to deficits of 210 kbd in 2017 and 90 kbd in 2018. We lower our WTI forecasts to average $47 this year and $50.bbl next year. We cut Brent to $50 this year and $52bbl in 2018. We now beleve oil stays in contango by yearend. but see a WTI forward anchor al $45.50 and S5 backwardation by

amics remain headwinds for the region as whole. Where export-orientated growth is more elusive, such as in the more closed economies of Brazil and Colombia, domestic demand may not be sufficient to provide attractive rates of return for foreign investment against a backdrop of US rate normalization. A

isocioa t0000 5000 0 20 5 'Figure 5: EUR/NOK and Crude oil lob 9.5 - 9.0 - 8,5 - 2 to - 7.5 - 7.0 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 —010,04 Brent, Close, USD, its —EUR/NOIC actual. Ito &wore DeoYene Bork Eitiomewg Fount* CP 30 40 50n 60c 70 80c 90 7gi 100 1102. 120 130 Figure 6: Cor

n EUR/CLP is an attractive alternative to position for loose monetary policies at the core (current: 618, entry: 616, target: 682, stop: 626). In Colombia, policymakers under-delivered in terms of FX market intervention after signaling that the currency was unacceptably expensive. Nevertheless, some n

licy likely to continue to be a compromise over the next couple of meetings, the best Norges Bank can hope for currently is that the correction in Brent crude lower will extend and weigh the NOK down. Near-term, and dependent on crude consolidating above/around $100/barrel, the re-assessment of the

.0 Brazil 2.5 1.1 1.8 1.8 0.7 Q,2 1.8 2.7 22 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.3 Chile 4.1 2.5 3.5 -0.4 3.0 21 4.0 2.8 3.2 2.5 4.5 4.2 4 3.0 Colombia 4.7 5.0 45 31 9.7 21 4.0 4.0 5.0 1.8 2.8 3.2 3.0 Ecuador 4.5 3.3 4.0 4.7 2,0 1.5 2.0 2.5 35 2.3 3,4 t 3.5 t 4.0 Mexico 1

ll as weaker supply growth, largely in Iraq and Libya. • Recent reports of a peace agreement in Libya between the rebels and the government caused Brent to fall by around 5%. We think a quick and full recovery in production is unlikely and we also think overall production capacity is now lower due t

gorous testing to determine their safety and effectiveness. trCA 9 1.4 4 04- i Z. ,t .4- 4 4 '4' • •t Ix, outside the country — in Bogota, Colombia. 'The FDA made me sign an agreement that I wouldn't do that anymore in the United States" Williams said. He says the FDA had an issue with him

who has a his- taaee otfhelping heal with stem cell treatments. Treatment touted as surgery alternative - amid effectivenessand legal concerns Brent fichrotenbocr (aSchrotenhier USA TODAY Spans Pbr a minimum price of $15,000, several professional ath- letes recently received a curious new med

2.1 1.8 1.9 Latin America 42 2.9 3.9 2.8 2.4 Argentina 8.9 2.7 3.6 24 -32 &aid 2.7 1.4 4.1 OS IS Chie 6.0 5.4 4.5 5.1 7.1 Colombia 5.9 4.3 4.5 01 6.7 Ecuador 8.0 5.0 4.0 4.2 4.8 Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 41 3.5 Peru 6.9 6.0 7.0 13 60 Uruguay 5.7 3S 4.0 11.8

rporates (CEMBI) 10.1% 9.5% 13.1% 21.0% 16.4% 15.4% Quarterly Averages Commodities Current 1204 1301 1302 1303 GSCI Index YID Return' Brent (Sibbl) 110 105 112 105 120 Energy -3.7% Gold (Stoz) 1733 1725 1750 1775 Precious Metals 8.7% Copper IS/metric ton) 7629 8300 8500

n. Further exchange rate depreciation is expected to help through the ongoing adjustment process, but some large countries like Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, and Peru do need to see a bigger correction in their current account deficits. Weaker currencies and depressed economic activity will create a gro

hen modelled OPEC production of 32.4 mmb/d matches our calculated call on OPEC (i.e., the volume required from OPEC It o balance demand). Oil at a Brent price of USD45/bbl is below the 2016 national budget breakeven level for all of the ten countries assessed by our EMEA macro team, and also below t