Epstein Secrets

n curve (Jan 21) and we closed Jan 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short term bull flattening in Mexico, and we keep paying ly IBR in Colombia and receive 2y Camara in Chile. We stay neutral on most LatAm FX as valuations are not attractive. We like to short MXN at current levels. Position

k off scenarios. As our Sentiment Survey shows, geopolitical risks are still one of the main risks for investors (Chart 24). What we like in EM In LatAm, we still like receiving rates in the belly of the Brazilian curve (Jan 21) and we closed Jan 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short te

n EUR/CLP is an attractive alternative to position for loose monetary policies at the core (current: 618, entry: 616, target: 682, stop: 626). In Colombia, policymakers under-delivered in terms of FX market intervention after signaling that the currency was unacceptably expensive. Nevertheless, some n

however, heavy positioning and potential transitory increase in risk aversion could induce a temporary break in the appreciation trend. Figure 1: LatAm and Asia FX on overvaluation territory environment of reduced volatility. Nevertheless, as the deterioration of fundamentals slowly spreads from t

-end receivers where inflation dynamics and real rates are supportive as in Brazil (where we now see 100bp of value in JuI18/Jan19 FRA), Russia, and Colombia. We closed our ASW compression trade in ZAR and see some short-end pull-back before elections and possible downgrade in November. We see TRY as the

will hike the policy rate by 25bps next week. While October inflation is likely to decline in Poland and Russia, it should accelerate in Turkey. In LatAm, the COPOM minutes on Tuesday should reinforce a final 50bp cut next while leaving the door open for more. Watch for some deceleration in Mexico's Q

22.4 3.8 MercadoUbre MELI US 281.9 -2.9 Chile IPSA 02 36.6 LATAM Airlines Group S A. LTM US 14.4 2.9 Chedraui CHDRAUIB MM 21 -2.7 Colombia IGBC -0.9 12.8 Santander Chile BSAC US 30.2 2.0 Nature NATU3 BS 10.3 -2.6 Mexico IPC -0.7 28.6 Garcia do Brasil BBAS3 BS 113 19 Va

ier Avila Joshua Shoshan Subject: / I DB Morning Overview Classification: Public Paul — we send this morning piece below to a list of our mainly LatAm clients every morning. Would you like to be on this? Martin Classification: Public DB the WORLD - DB Reid - This week has been, and still is, al

g-term investment. payment/expense account)? The purpose of the loan is to support the investment of Aromatiss S.A.S. in land and infrastructure in Colombia and set up the factory that will develop natural cosmetic ingredients and essential oils, to be used in the production of their fragrances and perfu

F. threatening litigation against Deutsche Bank AG or any of its subsidiaries? (If Yes, 0 Yes 2 No provide details below and contact Quality Mgt. (LatAm/Int7) or the Regulatory Control Group and notify Compliance immediately) Does the client or related party have any financial or other association /

-term investment, payment/expense account)? The purpose of the loan is to support the investment of Aromatiss S.A.S. in land and infrastructure in Colombia and set up the factory that will develop natural cosmetic ingredients and essential oils, to be used in the production of their fragrances and perf

the customer threatening litigation against Deutsche Bank AG or any of its subsidiaries? (If Yes, provide details below and contact Quality Mgt. (LatAm/Int'l) or the Regulatory Control Group and notify Compliance immediately) G Does the client or related party have any financial or other associat

rish (not foolish) For the year ahead, we recommend being bearish 5y US rates, long USDJPY and short a basket of LatAm long bonds (Mexico, Brazil and Colombia). ¢ But in the near term, we urge caution with the reflation trade. Short 10y US real rates offers the best risk-reward after recent moves. US rate

ater. This time, we expect a sharp selloff with an eventual recovery. Our bearish view on LatAm credits in particular is driven by 1) positioning in LatAm is heavier than in EMEA or Asia — watch outflows from IG crossover investors who will rethink their EM IG investments; 2) their exposure to commoditi

the above mentioned global factors, for the last two years and the years 2013-2014 for the sake of comparison (Chart 64). We find that currencies in LatAm and EEMEA are more exposed to global factors than in Asia. Interestingly, LatAm and EMEA currencies are more sensitive to shocks in commodity prices