Epstein Secrets

n curve (Jan 21) and we closed Jan 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short term bull flattening in Mexico, and we keep paying ly IBR in Colombia and receive 2y Camara in Chile. We stay neutral on most LatAm FX as valuations are not attractive. We like to short MXN at current levels. Position

ts may explain why Draghi gave up on the currency this week. But something has been lost in the process and the Euro could now appreciate freely if Eurozone data keeps improving. BoJ only dovish major central bank The BoJ left its policy unchanged this week and Governor Kuroda justified the current po

(Fwd. Rates) Hungary EUR/HUF Latin America Currency Argentina USD/ARS (Fwd. Rates) Brazil USD/BRL (Fwd. Rates) Chile USD/CLP (Fwd. Rates) Colombia USD/COP (Fwd. Rates) Spot 3M 6M 12M 5.49 5.60 5.98 6.62 - 4.63 4.87 5.33 2.26 2.12 2.15 2.17 - 2.31 2.35 2.44 509 505 502 500 - 516 521 531

ies from the IMF we calculate that German exports could be reduced by as much as EUR 3.3bn per year. In recent years, German exports to outside the Eurozone have grown as the economy has responded to weak demand in the single currency area. Germany's relatively strong growth compared the rest of the Eur

ad | 16 November 2016 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014735 --- PAGE BREAK --- target. It is possible that Trump’s election could weaken fiscal discipline in the Eurozone over the medium term, but we are more concerned by the non-trivial risk that the ECB may disappoint in the December meeting by either not extending q

rish (not foolish) For the year ahead, we recommend being bearish 5y US rates, long USDJPY and short a basket of LatAm long bonds (Mexico, Brazil and Colombia). ¢ But in the near term, we urge caution with the reflation trade. Short 10y US real rates offers the best risk-reward after recent moves. US rate

36 UBS Economy The successful formation of a Greek government after the June 17 elections has reduced the risk of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone. However, the Euro debt crisis persists, and further reform and consolidation efforts in Spain and Italy are needed. In the US, economic data weakene

ouncements in key markets such as Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey. Key policy rate announcement dates: 29 June, Colombia; 4 July, Poland; 5 July, Malaysia; 11 July, Brazil; 12 July, Indonesia; 19 July, Turkey 36 UBS Preference: overweight Recommendations Tactical (

20 | N 1 S&S O- SS - 0% 50% + -20 + - - -30% -40 - 25% | 20.6% 15.6% a 16.7% ~ 60% 117% 11.9% 12.9% -60 | ; ° ail OQ, 69% 67% a 0% -80 Turkey Mexico Colombia South Africa Brazil Argentina Russia Bitcoin Count of Drawdowns of 15% or More Worst Historical Drawdown (TRY) (MXN) (COP) (ZAR) (BRL) (ARS) (RUB) (X

y explained by Puerto Rico. = Chinese trade growth moderated; deals announced during President Trump’s visit are unlikely to reduce trade deficit. = Eurozone data came in mixed relative to consensus expectations, but still points to above-trend growth in the region. 27 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025690 Source: Inv