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EFTA01379381

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, % 07 -06 22 32 25 36 CA balJGDP, % .41 .12 .13 . 45 -22 .17 FDUGDP, % 1 5% 3 1% 3.1% 27% 13% 31% EMEA Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Israel Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Nom. GDP (USD bnl 253 268 150 379 603 1,677 396 838 Inflation (Yorle/ 22 155 26 10 24

.7 2.2 62 CA bilJGDP, % • 200 4.4 -2.8 8.1 10.2 00 FDUGDP, % 127% -I.1% 1.1% 08% -2.2% 5.2% '" Current OierrugnIRate Son Puma* At Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0076808 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00222992 EFTA01379381

EFTA01379450

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, however, these remain quite uncertain. The EM election calendar for 2012 is a full one Country Czech Republic Russia Malaysia Mexico Egypt Hungary Thailand Brazil Colombia Colombia Venezuela San* Damn Beat Election for President President House of Representatives Congress and Presiden

ver fiscal slippage; and RBI is unlikely to be able to ease further in this rate cycle. Any upside to oil prices could be particularly damaging to Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. the macro picture via trade gap, inflation and fiscal (in the event of excise duty cuts) channels. We see RBI as continuing with its asymmetric in

EFTA01379447

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re in global trade. This has led to vast improvements in current account balances - from deep deficits in 2008, current accounts are in surplus for Hungary and close to flat for Poland. Meanwhile, growth is strong (well above trend) and broad-based (the growth-valuations mix is attractive), and labor

elections are completed in Q2 2018 there is a possibility that the NBH becomes even taxer with respect to the currency, opening up more room for Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0076925 SDNY_GM_00223109 EFTA01379447