Epstein Secrets

EM 20 1.8 2.7 32 0.6 02 2.4 2.3 2.9 51 5.6 4 5.1 4.2 Czech Reputio -0.9 2.8 2.8 6A 32 jj) 2.0 2.3 42 1.1 0.2 4 1.6 4 1.5 Hungary 1.1 30 25 2.7 45 21 2.0 2.5 30 03 -OA 4 0.6 4 2.9 t Israel 3.4 3.3 3.8 32 2.7 3.2 3.6 45 32 1.9 1.0 1.3 1.9 Pdand IS 32

YID Equity Sector Performance' Energy Materials Industrials Discretionary Staples Healthcare rmancials Information Tech. Telecormimications Utilities Overall •Lawdaneturrn as el Al 10.2014 Sauce: J.P. Wigan 1.36 101 1/1 0.94 2.22 6.15 1021 2.12 1.34 102 1.71 0.92 2.30 6.20 1000 2.

76014 0.5 2.1 -1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 2.4 -0.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.3 0.3 EEMEA Poland Hungary Czech Republic Romania Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Israel Turkey South Africa GDP (% yoy) 2015F 2016F 2017F 1.0 3.4 2.7 4.5 3.7 1.9 3.

strials remain a significant concern. Most of the rest of the market, both the S&P and the Russell 2000, seems fully valued except a few big Banks, Utilities, Airlines, and some of our specific stock picks. We do not believe that a recession looms or that S&P profits will fall again in 2016. We also do

19 Greece Health Care Consumer Discretionary Utilities Telco Information Technology Industrial Financials Materials Russia Egypt Energy Hungary Thailand Malaysia South Africa Mexico Taiwan Indonesia Turkey Chile Poland Korea Brazil India Czech Republic China Consumer Staples P

gure 17: EM versus DM by sector — P/BV (x) and RoE (%) Sector Financials Energy Materials Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Industrials Utilities Telco Information Technology Healthcare AGGREGATE EM P/BV (x) EM ROE (%) 1.46 0.94 1.35 2.24 3.82 1.47 1.06 2.39 2.08 3.90 1.59 13.8

preferred cyclical sectors. We also like Energy. e We are cautious on Materials, where we expect margin pressure to continue, as well as Telecom and Utilities, due to high valuations. Strategic (1 to 2 years) °¢ We like medium-sized US companies, which should benefit from robust earnings growth in the lon

ward cash-rich and faster- growing Asia. Emerging market country preferences Current most Current least preferred markets preferred markets Brazil Hungary China Indonesia Mexico Poland We currently have a neutral view on the remaining emerging equity markets in the MSCI EM index. For further informati

arnings growth. Our sector stance in the US Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials T Healthcare ndustrials Telecom Utilities aterials Viclelulsalel vy) vial ws Source: UBS Note: Past performance is not an indication of future returns. For further information please con

stands ready to buy the bonds of compliant Eurozone governments has lessened the tail risks for the smaller European emerging equity markets (Turkey, Hungary, Poland), but their equity markets are susceptible to setbacks. Strategic (1 to 2 years) e Strategically, we would advise that EM portfolios tilt t

il Bovespa 58383 2.6% Information Tech. 15.6% 16.1% -5.2% 19.3% Hang Seng 22111 22.1% Telecommunications 21.9% -3.4% -1.3% 12.2% Shanghai SE 2117 42% Utilities 47% 8.2% -20.4% 5.2% *Levels/returns as of Nov 08, 2012 Overall 15.6% 13.2% 4.4% 12.2% Local currency except MSCI EM $ Source: J.P. Morgan HOUSE_O

4 13 0.4. 1.8) 27. 24. 3.7 / 64 5.0 60. 63 T Bulgaria wi 0 1.5 a a a we a a a a a a a Czech Republic d -11 0.9 -3.1 -08 -12 -13 21 1.0 43 24 34 29 24 Hungary 6 12 0.5 3.5 -0.9 -1.0 -10 1.0 15 8 44 55 58 47 Poland 43 23 1.61 24 16 0.5 0.5 4 1.34 23. 3.0. 46 40 3.1 25 Romania 25 0.0 0.8 0.5 1.9 -24 12 1.2 -0