Epstein Secrets

7 2.70 2.80 2.8 2.8 EEMEA Czech R. Policy 0.05 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 2y 0.74 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.10 1 Oy 1.37 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.70 Hungary Policy 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 2Y 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.70 0.90 1 Oy 2.35 2.20 2.30 2.50 2.80 Israel Policy 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

ts may explain why Draghi gave up on the currency this week. But something has been lost in the process and the Euro could now appreciate freely if Eurozone data keeps improving. BoJ only dovish major central bank The BoJ left its policy unchanged this week and Governor Kuroda justified the current po

Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Emerging Europe Currency Czech Rep. EUR/CZK (Fwd. Rates) USD/CZK (Fwd. Rates) Hungary EUR/HUF Latin America Currency Argentina USD/ARS (Fwd. Rates) Brazil USD/BRL (Fwd. Rates) Chile USD/CLP (Fwd. Rates) Colombia USD/COP (Fwd.

ies from the IMF we calculate that German exports could be reduced by as much as EUR 3.3bn per year. In recent years, German exports to outside the Eurozone have grown as the economy has responded to weak demand in the single currency area. Germany's relatively strong growth compared the rest of the Eur

important contributor to US GDP growth. Growth has also begun to pick up in key areas of the emerging markets, including China and Brazil. While the Eurozone economy remains weak, we expect Q3 2012 to mark the bottom, and that growth will begin to get "less bad" from Q4 2012. Equities Equity markets have

continue to tap the primary market if they ask for a support program? ¢ How much more support will Greece receive and will it be able to stay in the Eurozone next year? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Austerity and weak growth ¢ We think the Eurozone economy troughed in 3Q. We expect flattish growth in 4Q 20

stands ready to buy the bonds of compliant Eurozone governments has lessened the tail risks for the smaller European emerging equity markets (Turkey, Hungary, Poland), but their equity markets are susceptible to setbacks. Strategic (1 to 2 years) e Strategically, we would advise that EM portfolios tilt t

ad | 16 November 2016 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014735 --- PAGE BREAK --- target. It is possible that Trump’s election could weaken fiscal discipline in the Eurozone over the medium term, but we are more concerned by the non-trivial risk that the ECB may disappoint in the December meeting by either not extending q

ad | 16 November 2016 43 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014773 --- PAGE BREAK --- Chart 73: Fundamentals — CEE beats periphery Chart 74: Poland and Hungary wide relative to Chart 75: HUF vol lagging EUR and PLN Italy and Spain 190% 5% 12 140% ©) am "8 @ | 3% 90% ® ay 10 40% 1% -10% 0% 5 Spain France P

36 UBS Economy The successful formation of a Greek government after the June 17 elections has reduced the risk of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone. However, the Euro debt crisis persists, and further reform and consolidation efforts in Spain and Italy are needed. In the US, economic data weakene

ward cash-rich and faster- growing Asia. Emerging market country preferences Current most Current least preferred markets preferred markets Brazil Hungary China Indonesia Mexico Poland We currently have a neutral view on the remaining emerging equity markets in the MSCI EM index. For further informati