Epstein Secrets

7 2.70 2.80 2.8 2.8 EEMEA Czech R. Policy 0.05 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 2y 0.74 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.10 1 Oy 1.37 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.70 Hungary Policy 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 2Y 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.70 0.90 1 Oy 2.35 2.20 2.30 2.50 2.80 Israel Policy 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

right now IX Buy 6M ATM EURSEK straddles: We see a number of key events for the rest of the year wtich should see EURSEK vol rise including ECB and Riksbank meetings as well as the announcement of a new Riksbark Governor. EUR?SEK vol looks cheap on our metrics. Buy EURAJSO out spreads: near.temi headwi

le had ended. We see rates on hold for the coming quarters with the longer-term outlook complicated by the appointment of a new MPC in early 2016. Hungary The NBH signaled that the easing cycle is now over and that the policy rate will remain at the current level for a very long time. We do not expect

on hold at its last meeting with rates well below zero. We see further gradual depreciation of CHF vs. EUR going forward. Sweden In December, the Riksbank left its rates profile broadly unchanged, suggesting rates will remain sub-zero until end-2017. Norway Norges Bank surprised with a rate cut in Se

rrency weakness, and more inclined to continue to push through rate cuts, if not regardless of FX, at least as long as FX depreciation is orderly. Hungary's NBH have made it very clear that the focus is on growth, and that inflation is taking the back-seat for now. Consequently, the NBH rate cutting

Page 11 EFTA01464446 16 May 2013 FX Blueprint: Dashing Buck Meanwhile in Sweden imported deflation is dragging headline CPI further below the Riksbank's projection (in April -0.5% YoY vs the -0.2% projection). For the inflation targeting Riksbank this should mean further policy easing, and it mig