Epstein Secrets

2.6 3.6 3.0 5.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 Bulgaria 1.7 0.7 1.5 Czech Republic 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -1.6 -1.3 -1.6 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.4 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.4 Hungary 1.6 -1.4 0.0 .1A -0.7 •1.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.0 5.5 5.5 3.7 3.9 Poland 4.3 2.1 1.6 0.8 1.6 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.0 2.3 4.0 2.9 1.9 2.

than trend shifts. • Last week, we raised our USD/JPY forecasts from a 2013 range of 75.85 to a range of 80-90. We have always been sceptical that the Bank of Japan would be able to drive up Japanese inflation and drive down real yields versus the US to power USD/JPY higher throughout 2013, but there is no deny

75 70 65 60 55 50 1/1/2010 5/1/2011 8/4/2012 = 1/1/2014) 5/1/2015 = 9/1/2016 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research true against the JPY given the Bank of Japan is pegging 10y JGB yields at zero. We are cognizant of the possibility that the willingness of Japanese investors — who have already bought record am

ad | 16 November 2016 43 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014773 --- PAGE BREAK --- Chart 73: Fundamentals — CEE beats periphery Chart 74: Poland and Hungary wide relative to Chart 75: HUF vol lagging EUR and PLN Italy and Spain 190% 5% 12 140% ©) am "8 @ | 3% 90% ® ay 10 40% 1% -10% 0% 5 Spain France P

ward cash-rich and faster- growing Asia. Emerging market country preferences Current most Current least preferred markets preferred markets Brazil Hungary China Indonesia Mexico Poland We currently have a neutral view on the remaining emerging equity markets in the MSCI EM index. For further informati

should profit in the medium term. e Longer-term debt issues and weak competitiveness of major exporters are hurting the Japanese economy. Therefore the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance will maintain an expansive policy and continue to try weaken the JPY. However, current positive growth dynamics are supportiv

Foreign Exchange We remain underweight the Japanese yen. The Japanese economy continues to weaken against its peers, leading to rising pressure for the Bank of Japan to engage in further quantitative easing. We have closed our preference for the Canadian dollar following its recent strength, and therefore close ou

stands ready to buy the bonds of compliant Eurozone governments has lessened the tail risks for the smaller European emerging equity markets (Turkey, Hungary, Poland), but their equity markets are susceptible to setbacks. Strategic (1 to 2 years) e Strategically, we would advise that EM portfolios tilt t

lar to QE itself. Beyond that, this is another small step towards perceptions that monetary policy is no longer independent from fiscal policy, like the Bank of Japan’s joint statement with two government ministers last month. Nobody knows the tipping point at which these perceptions feed into much higher inflation e

4 13 0.4. 1.8) 27. 24. 3.7 / 64 5.0 60. 63 T Bulgaria wi 0 1.5 a a a we a a a a a a a Czech Republic d -11 0.9 -3.1 -08 -12 -13 21 1.0 43 24 34 29 24 Hungary 6 12 0.5 3.5 -0.9 -1.0 -10 1.0 15 8 44 55 58 47 Poland 43 23 1.61 24 16 0.5 0.5 4 1.34 23. 3.0. 46 40 3.1 25 Romania 25 0.0 0.8 0.5 1.9 -24 12 1.2 -0