Epstein Secrets

nk of three reasons to go short CHF/NOK. 1. The relative cycle is supportive of rate differentials. Inflation is at a much higher starting point in Norway than in Switzerland, leaving the Norges Bank much less room to manoeuvre than the SNB in the event of upside surprises to import prices or stronge

r, but a widening current account deficit and stronger USD will constrain gains versus the euro and dollar. We are moderately bearish EUR/GBP and GBP/USD, forecasting 80p and 1.54 by end-year respectively. • As an outright trade we prefer buying GBP versus CAD, on which we are more bearish. It rema

together, the dilemma of balancing the risk of domestic overheating versus excessive currency appreciation and subdued spot inflation is something Norway shares with a number of EM economies and also to a lesser extent with neighboring Sweden. However, Norway's dilemma is further reinforced by the l

agflation remains a prominent issue, further, it is worth nothing that almost any policy response could conceivably push volumes higher given that GBP/USD spot volumes experienced one of the sharpest falls YtD within the Deutsche Bank AG/London The bigger picture: Trading volumes and volatility 100

ic activity & inflation forecasts: 2015F 2016F 2017F GDP (% yoy) EU Euro area Germany France EFTA01476013 Italy Spain UK Sweden Denmark Norway Switzerland 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 3.2 2.4 3.2 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.4 2.8 2.5 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.2 Source: National authorit

vily concentrated in commodity and EFTA01475991 EM currencies. Our end-2016 forecasts are largely unchanged: EUR/USD at 0.90, USD/JPY at 128, and GBP/USD at 1.27. Commodities: Supply adjustment is well underway for oil, not so for the metals We expect OPEC will have engineered one of the sharpest hi