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Microsoft Word - 07-11-11 - EOTM - Twilight of the Gods.docx
Eye on the Market July 11, 2011 J.P.Morgan Topics: Portfolios, US corporate profits and the Twilight of the Gods in the US, Europe, China and the IEA) Here's what our U.S. Balanced portfolio l
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030808 →, 5% Balanced Diversified Model Portfolio Hedge Funds, _Private equity, 6% 5% Real Estate Single Strategy 3% Hard Assets, Hedge Funds, 4% 18% Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, as of July 2011. These portfolios may not be suitable for all investors & are shown for illustrative purposes only PROFITS The primary (and perhaps
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030808 →decade. Some of these assumptions seem aggressive to apply in perpetuity. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030808 --- PAGE BREAK --- Eye on the Market July 11, 2011 J.P.Morgan Topics: Portfolios, US corporate profits and the Twilight of the Gods in the US, Europe, China and the IEA) Hourly compensation for production worker
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030809 →gn debt restructuring within the next 18 months (see chart from "Five Stages of Greece", June 30, 2011). Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer * JP Morgan's Prime Money Market Fund is indicative of industry concerns about a liquidity squeeze. The fund holds no Greece, Portugal, Ireland or Spain. Its Italy
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030812 →k since there are no binding committments at all 110% 100% 90% Little progress on debt reduction despite 20 years of primary budget surpluses 80% 70% Maastricht limit 60% 50% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: International Monetary Fund. So to be clear, the Twilight of the Gods has not
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030812 →Microsoft Word - 07-25-11 - EOTM - White Castle.docx
60% ceiling AX 50% =e Debt limit to 3x 40% gov. receipts 30% —> 2x 20% 1x 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Source: OMB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lowe
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025221 →explain how they get to the President’s baseline in the first place. 1 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025221 --- PAGE BREAK --- Eye on the Market | July 25, 2011 J.P Morgan Topics: US debt ceiling negotiations, a more ambitious European bailout plan (finally), and how large cap growth stocks and rising corporate profits
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025222 →Industrial production Index, 100 = January 2007 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 15 2007 2009 2010 2011 Source: INE, CSO, ISTAT, NSS, Eurostat, Bundesbank, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Periphery = Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain. 2008 * The current EFSF lending capacity is Eur 255 b
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025223 →ize their banks * Language (with no specifics) regarding the use of EU structural funds to boost growth in Greece What the EU gets: more austerity, Maastricht with teeth (?) and private sector involvement in Greek debt rollover * Legally binding national fiscal framework to be developed by end of 2012; fis
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025223 →and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank. trust and investment management services are provided bvllt Morgan Chase Bank. and its affiliates. Securities are offered through. Morgan Securities LLC (Mak Member NYSE. FNMA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or sold th
ed. Not all investment ideas referenced aresuitable for all investors. These recommendations may not be suitable for all investors. Speak with your. Morgan Representative concerning your personal situation. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale ofany financial instrument. P
anking system? [3] This crisis is not just about sovereign debt/deficits. Ireland and Spain were model EMU citizens, with deficits inside of the 3% Maastricht level for years. The problem: total sovereign, corporate, financial and household debt, and each country's ability to service it. Despite reductions
tters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is not a licensed insurance provider. O 2010 JPAlorgan Chase & Co 5 Proposition 25 reduces the legislative vote required to pass a budget to a simple majority from a two thirds majority. Proposition 26 broadens the
banking system? 3. This crisis is not just about sovereign debt/deficits. Ireland and Spain were model EMU citizens, with deficits inside of the 3% Maastricht level for years. The problem: total sovereign, corporate, financial and household debt, and each country's ability to service it. Despite reductions
Eye on the Market, July 25, 2011
raising the debt ceiling YS , , + . + . 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Debt limit to gov. receipts nd Source: OMB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lower
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025215 →ize their banks * Language (with no specifics) regarding the use of EU structural funds to boost growth in Greece What the EU gets: more austerity, Maastricht with teeth (?) and private sector involvement in Greek debt rollover * Legally binding national fiscal framework to be developed by end of 2012; fisc
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025217 →antee of future results. References to the performance or character of our portfolios generally refer to our Balanced Model Portfolios constructed by J.P. Morgan. It is a proxy for client performance and may not represent actual transactions or investments in client accounts. The model portfolio can be
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025220 →Entities connected to both JPMorgan Chase and Maastricht
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
ORGANIZATIONMaria Farmer
PERSON
Marc Rich
PERSONLeon Black
PERSON
Nelson
PERSON
New York
LOCATIONPrivate Investments
ORGANIZATIONMichael Cembalest
PERSON
Barack Obama
PERSON
Harry Reid
PERSON
Paul Cassell
PERSON
Ronald Reagan
PERSON
Dallas
LOCATIONEmmy Taylor
PERSON
Ireland
LOCATION
Lebanon
LOCATION
Mitch McConnell
PERSON
Eleanor Roosevelt
PERSONthe European Monetary Union
ORGANIZATION
Washington D.C.
LOCATION