Epstein Secrets

Statistics, PBOC,ChinaAutomptive Infonnatbn, China Economic Information Network, CLSA•Marbt. HaverAnalytics. J.P. Morgan Securities 11O, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. • PMIdata are index levet Housingprice to income. cementpiodudion and steel productional.° as of Dec.2011. All theother dataareas of Feb.2012. Mic

ere is China heading? There is a roiling epistemological debate as to whether China's current decline is structural or cyclical. As an aside, two of JP Morgan's investment banking analysts (one an economist, the other an equity market strategist) have taken opposite sides of the debate, which is in and of it

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further. the views expressed

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank. N.A. and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC(JPMS). Member NYSE. FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchase

) is not intended or written to be wed. and cannot be wed. in connection with the promotion. marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPAforgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is nor a licensed insurance

for normalcy among individual investors, money managers, CEOs, corporate treasurers, pension funds, regulators, etc. Through massive money creation, Central Banks have provided the veneer of normalcy which has allowed the private sector to get moving again in the US, or at least in the case of Europe, to stop

: Robert J. Shiller. — Constant spending % Spending rate: 3.5% of NW Inflation: 3% After-tax return: 3% 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years Source:. Morgan Private Bank. 10 Two obvious conclusions: for many families, spending plays a large role in the ultimate accumulation of wealth; and since monetary policy is n

ach client and is serviced through distinct legal entities or specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by 5 Morgan Chase Bank. • and its affiliates. Securities are offered through Morgan Securities LLC(IPMS). Member NYSE. FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or so

ment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested. Nor all investment ideas referenced are suitable for all investors. Speak with your.. Morgan Representative concerning your personal situation. This material is nor intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

s nor intended or written to be used. and cannot be used. in connection with the promotion. marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with !Morgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that.. Morgan is not a licensed insurance pro

s sire. 1987 except for8razil.China (1995). 2.3 2 8 Zerophilia and your family spending The term zerophilia is how we describe the inclination by Central Banks to rely on quasi-zero interest rates as a means of reinvigorating both financial markets and private sector demand. Fed logic: impairing the real va

ion has been prepared for information purposes only. Nothing in this material is intended to be a solicitation for any product or service offered by J.P. Morgan's Private Bank or any of its affiliates. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee I

tions in banking sector liquidity implications from 2008 may not be relevant yet in an environment with unlimited liquidity and credit facilities at Central Banks. Conclusion Psychology continues to drive the market but we believe that current stock valuations are providing interesting entry points. While we

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payroll

Eye on the Market | March 15, 2012 J.P Morgan Topics: Is US data as good as it looks? Is Chinese data as bad as it looks? Is European data as bizarre as it looks? What a diff’rence a day makes.

for normalcy among individual investors, money managers, CEOs, corporate treasurers, pension funds, regulators, etc. Through massive money creation, Central Banks have provided the veneer of normalcy which has allowed the private sector to get moving again in the US, or at least in the case of Europe, to stop d

oduction Source: Nationa Bureau of Statistics, PROC, China Automotive Information, China Economic Information Network, CLSA-Markit, Haver Analytics. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. * PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, cement production and steel productionare as of

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A, and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views ex